The full article from Financial Review today regarding Albermarle and it's raised lithium forecast for those blocked by paywall.

The numbers they're talking about are huge (no surprise to us here I guess) but carries huge weight as the biggest player in the industry, especially for US investors starting to wake up to what this is and what's actually happening imo.

Massive slap in the face to Goldman, especially with UBS's u-turn and PLS' quarterly...

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Lithium giant lifts forecasts by nearly 15pc on EV surge

Lithium giant Albemarle has raised its forecast for future lithium demand by more than 15 per cent and signalled it would expandits Australian mines to supply the lithium needed for the world to rapidly adopt electric vehicles.

But Mineral Resources swiftly provided a reminder on Wednesday that expanding mines in Western Australia is easier said than done, revealing thatexpansion of its Mt Marionlithium mine had been delayed by labour shortages and equipment delays, forcing a 17 per cent cut to this year’s export target.

Albemarle CEO Kent Masters (foreground); with left Walter Sopp (vice president, lithium manufacturing Asia Pacific); Right: Eric Norris (president, lithium Albemarle Corp) on site in Western Australia. Tony McDonough

Albemarle is one of the biggest players in the global lithium industry and is a part owner of two big Australian mines, Greenbushes and Wodgina, and also has a processing plant at Kemerton that turns spodumene concentrate from those mines into battery grade lithium hydroxide.

Albemarle expects those assets will be very lucrative in the decade ahead, predicting in Wednesday’s five-year strategy update that its global revenues from lithium would rise from $US4.7 billion in 2022 to as much as $US15.7 billion in 2027.

Albemarle raised its forecasts for lithium demand by about 15 per cent, suggesting the world would consume 1.8 million tonnes of the commodity (lithium carbonate equivalent) in 2025 and 3.7 million tonnes in 2030.

Barely two months ago Albemarle told investors that demand for lithium carbonate equivalent would be 1.5 million tonnes in 2025 and 3.2 million tonnes in 2030.

EV demand fastest growth sector

While lithium goes into a range of sectors, Albemarle predicted that electric vehicles powered by lithium-ion batteries would be easily the biggest and fastest growing source of demand.

The company predicts 15.7 million electric vehicles will roll out of auto-manufacturing plants this year; up from 11.2 million in 2022.

In 2030, Albemarle reckons 46.9 million electric vehicles will be produced; the company had previously expected 40.6 million electric vehicles in 2030.

Albemarle said on Wednesday it had about 200,000 tonnes of lithium production capacity at the end of 2022, but wanted that to rise to between 400,000 and 650,000 tonnes by 2030.

It flagged two waves of expansion at Wodgina and Greenbushes that would help achieve that volume growth; the first wave was expected before 2024 when third processing “trains” are added to both mines.

The second wave of expansion was flagged for the period between 2025 and 2030 and was not detailed.

The comments are bullish for Albemarle’s partners in those Australian mines; Greenbushes is shared with IGO Group and Tianqi while Wodgina is shared with Mineral Resources.

Wodgina has two processing “trains” which turn raw ore into spodumene concentrate with about 6 per cent lithium.

Those two trains have a combined capacity of 500,000 tonnes and the companies wants to install a third train to take volumes up to 750,000 tonnes.

Albemarle flagged growth on a similar scale for the “conversion” part of its business, which refers to the industrial plants like Kemerton which turn spodumene concentrate from the mines into battery grade lithium hydroxide.

Albemarle flagged two further lithium hydroxide trains were likely at Kemerton between 2025 and 2027; those additions would take Kemerton to four processing trains.

Albemarle’s partner in the Kemerton and Wodgina assets, Mineral Resources, wants tobuild a lithium hydroxide processing plant at Wodgina, which is located in the Pilbara region 1700 kilometres away from Kemerton.

Albemarle has been cool on the idea of a lithium hydroxide plant at Wodgina and did not list Wodgina as a future site for a lithium hydroxide plant in Wednesday’s update.

But Albemarle did say it envisaged building a plant somewhere in the Asia Pacific between 2025 and 2027 and the two companies will jointly fund a new vehicle that will study and invest in facilities that can turn Wodgina’s spodumene into lithium hydroxide.

Albemarle made clear that the cost of building a lithium hydroxide processing plant in Australia was high by global standards, saying it was between 25 per cent and 50 per cent more expensive than South America and double to three times the cost of building in China, where it also owns conversion facilities.

The investment community views Albemarle as one of the best defensive stocks in the lithium sector, because of its size and scale but also because it has traditionally sold a portion of its lithium on long-term contracts that ensure viability when prices are low but reduce exposure to the extremely high lithium prices witnessed in the past year.

On the contrary, pure playAustralian miners like Pilbara Mineralshave offered investors much clearer exposure to spikes in lithium prices.

Albemarle signalled on Wednesday that it would seek more exposure to lithium prices, saying it would move away from multi-year contracts in favour of selling lithium on three month contracts or daily “spot” markets.

Albemarle and Mineral Resources altered the terms of their partnership last year, with the Australian company now owning 50 per cent of the Wodgina mine near Port Hedland.

Mineral Resources now owns just 15 per cent of the Kemerton lithium hydroxide processing facilities near Bunbury in WA.

Mineral Resources also mines lithium at Mt Marion in WA under a 50:50 partnership with Chinese company Ganfeng.