SYA 5.26% 3.6¢ sayona mining limited

Well it seems the forum does have compassion. We are talking...

  1. 10,873 Posts.
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    Well it seems the forum does have compassion. We are talking after all, "only money". Life is a gift. Live it well and kindly. I'm sure we all carry stories in our hearts.

    Back to SYA, I would like to see more action and less talk (and I don't need a lecture on all the claims they've added, drilling results to come, etc.). My concern is that SYA doesn't have Quebec options to itself. NAL is about ready to produce and that gives SYA a head start over others - except Livent/Nemaska and possibly AKE/James Bay- for I think around 12 - 18 months. Reality is 113Ktpy of NAL SC is contracted presently.

    Go further north to near James Bay area and I believe (so it's my opinion) the Critical Elements Rose Lithium project could be the next to be in production in Quebec (although AKE with James Bay may have something to say about that being DMS only with simpler flowsheet and shorter construction ~18mths - but AKE also still waiting their final permits whereas CRE has all theirs). CRE simply waiting on partner/financing but there doesn't appear to be a sense of urgency on their part either (Sep'23 target completion on Financing and 2yr from then to construction complete & production ramp start). The movement in CRE.V SP suggests news is soon. Rose is 225Ktpa ... also via flotation ... so rough equivalent to NAL. AKE James Bay is DMS only and 321Ktpa ... so about just under 1.5x NAL.

    The point is about 550Ktpa SC online by mid 2025 at the latest? Moblan not figuring in this discussion for me, despite plentiful contrary views on this forum. AKE I'm pretty sure, wont be entertaining a partner for the devlopement of James Bay. Also pretty sure that, while at this stage they only highlight the "possibility" of downstream refining in North America, they would build a Hydroxide refinery with JB SC5.6

    Side-Note: they can easily produce SC6+ but they, like understand the market and project economics (something a few HC do not). SC5.6 increases recoveries, tonnage and revenue at SC6 pricing (SC6 is a both a reference price and a product -if your Lithia content is below the contract price - say SC6 as that is the popular benchmark - then your sale price reduces as the buyer receives less Lithia for the tonnage purchased). For AKE producing SC5.6 iincreased their recoveries by 6%, tonnage by 18% and revenue by 12%. I look forward to see what the final optimized product is for NAL.

    So I'd like to see SYA (not SYQ) move quickly on the opportunity in front of them - leveraging its NAL SC and then its future plan (i.e. Moblan - but that seems to far away at the moment to have real economic value now) into an executable strategy that can be deliverable sooner rather than later. A JV to produce LiOH with Korean company for 100% of NAL SC would IMO acheive many things. I wouldn't suggest the JV structure to avoid the MoaA (as nothing is free) but take a look at for example this triumvirate structure. Obviously no Chinese partner but Korea's LG has the expertise we would need. LG are kind of stretched (for capital) at the moment and delayed a major plant with GM but I'm thinking this as post 2025/26 - gives a couple of years to build the LiOH plant. Should fit the rough timeline.

    Just an opinion (and why I'll continue to hold it) - plenty of horse trading to get the ownership structure inline with the all other rights.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5035/5035877-ffc22006676df72bcd33acf603357fd8.jpg

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5035/5035882-183e4eb3d3d988c910b05ecd3d696ac6.jpg

 
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