General Discussion Topics, page-90962

Yeah it will be an interesting start to the week.

And maybe the next TWO days can go a bit of the way to explain what course we're really on in so far as the SP.

And I really do like the last couple of days trading activity demonstrated by the OTC SYAXF's.

Not only did they end up trading up 5.6% when the broader DOW oscillated down 1.27% to close relatively flat at .19% down on the 23rd Feb - The next day on the 24th when the DOW traded as much as 1.46% down to close at 1.02% down , the SYAXF's who originally opened 4.73% down from Thursday's close , and then as much as 6.79% down from the opening high of 16.2 cents ...... , managed to claw back not just once but twice during the session to around 2:00 pm where it gave back 3.88% , and then recovered again to close out the session point two of a pip below its opening high which was 1.01% higher on its previous close .

And ALL of this after consecutive down days in the overall markets.

And even the registered shorts as calculated for the OTC traded securities were down almost 28% just in the last 2 days.

So intra day today it resolved 3 dips which - One as high as almost 7% down , only to close 1.01% higher when everything else lithium was pretty much flat to down .

So I believe there is a lot to be said of the BEOT strategies in so far as accumulation is concerned , but it still begs the questions as to how much do they expect to obtain in addition to their approximate 10% short position of 860 million shares.

So what is the actual ' Multiplier ' number of expected shares transferred from effectively according to the Top 20 holders at 12th October 2022 the other 53.82% of shares held by Retail and others outside the Top 20.

So what is their ' Target ' in working this strategy, and what is the ratio in working it in order to obtain a further slice of the 4,472,300,095 shares held outside the Top 20. ie how many shares do they ' accumulate ' to their holdings balance for every share they borrow and short. Or is accumulation NOT part of their strategy that many have claimed here , and its just an alternative VIEW which makes money from the back and forth trade.

This assumes of course that the ' Shorting ' strategies are indeed coming from somewhere's within the Top 20 distribution of holders which has also been stated by a few on this forum.

For me , it doesn't matter where it comes from , or whether its a cumulation effect from LARGE investor holdings outside the Top 20

However from the overall context , keep in mind that the Top 20 in October 2022 was 4.4% higher at 46.18% than it was in September 2021 when it was 41.78%.

So how far do they actually want to go before they are satisfied with their improved position if accumulation is the end goal.

Keep in mind that BHP's Top 20 holds approximately 76.22% of the company with FMG sitting roughly at 85.26 and PLS AT 68.12%.

So lets assume its closer to the Pilbara figure of 68% . That would mean that at 10% shorts on Sayona , in order to get a further 20 -21% distribution to the Sayona Top 20 , they would have to be wanting to obtain roughly 2 shares for every 1 shorted .....or alternatively a total shorts position of 20% in order to obtain 1 share for every single share shorted.

So looking at JUST the ASX data since the 24th Jan when you could argue we were flirting with new breakout highs and where we began the steady decline from 27 - 27.5 -28 cent closing prices.

Out of thos 23 trading days since then , there were arguable 30% or 7 UP day movements with 16 or 70% having DOWN days.

From a distribution point of view , and again JUST from the ASX data , a total of 813,014,558 share had transacted on the DOWN trend days with another 206,001,768 being scooped up on the UPTICK days of the SP appreciation.

So that's roughly 25% or 1 in every 4 shares potentially being accumulated for every 4 shares sold. If this is true then , we would expect to see this pattern cycle potentially 1 more time before we see a target of around 68% held by Top 20.

But again this is predicated on several assumptions of a.) that the Top 20 are 100% responsible for the shorting , and b.) that volumes from Chi-x which are not accounted for in these figures are NOT volume numbers associated with shorting strategies.

So given we have churned almost a BILLION of shares in just 23 trading days on JUST the ASX ,it would be interesting to see how if at all this has effected the Top 20 distribution percentage of holdings relative to what has been claimed to be those outside being retailers.