Lots of variables Arf.
Hopefully you are right. the more the merrier!!!
I must have missed the 120 figure, so was using a median on the 85-115 estimate that SYA are quoting.
I will go back and have a look at Dougal's slide.
I am also expecting some fine tuning of the plant, for at least the next couple of months, so production may start low and ramp up .
eg 2023 shipments, starting July-
1st shipment 15000
2nd shipment 25000
3rd shipment 30000
4th shipment 35000
Or something to that effect.
So my figures are conservative by design, I don't want to get ahead of myself.
It would be great if we can renegotiate the 900 to PLL as well, as most producers seem to be taking this route, including PLL to Tesla.
But I am not counting on it.
For ANY product worldwide, nothing gets locked in price for 27 years! I would go so far to say its impossible.
As costs of production rise with inflation, it would just become completely uneconomical.
At least the longest this is probably enforceable for is until we begin refining, which could be as early as 2025.
Having said that, I never got an answer from our resident miners about ramp up time of the plant.
SYA is stating they can achieve this extremely quickly, I believe due to the majority of the plant being existing and a known quantity.
It's not a green plant, being built straight off a blueprint/ engineering design.
And these guys are very humble, quiet, go about their business and just get things done.
When it comes to ops, they have a history underquoting and overdelivering.
Its not so long ago they were quoting 168 as nameplate.
We had all worked out with the improvements, it would be 226+, probably closer to 240-250
Carbonate will be the same...use 23000 as the absolute base case...most probably 30000.
Unless they convert it to Hydroxide, and also introduce more improvements, then you could be seeing anywhere between 30-50,000, but it would add expense and time.
If NAL converts to hydroxide and produces 50000 LiOH, PLL would earn more than SC6 sales alone.
Jury's still out there though, because as Brett said, NAL is about speed and tonnage...and the quickest way to a refined product, would probably be to stick with carbonate.
We'll see soon with the carbonate PFS....
Good luck everyone...
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