Whatever happened to ' Funky February ' .... Oh yeah that's when...

Whatever happened to ' Funky February ' .... Oh yeah that's when SYA dropped effectively 21.1% , but PLS has given back 23.6% AND announced a 22.0 cent FULL year fully franked dividend distribution on 23rd February.... so that's like PLS really giving up almost 28% and if you count an expected 3rd Divi distributed in the FIRST 12 months of paying dividends ( assuming another 11.0 cents ) , that's like PLS loosing an equivalent 30% in just the month of February alonse , and STILL paying an effective 3 Dividend distribution yield ' fully franked ' based on its current share price of a staggering 11.8%.

Heck that's better than any of the banks or Telstra right ....

So , so long as this yield divide exists between PLS and Sayona , I feel in the absence of any real perceived ' Growth ' in excess of that which can also be obtained and applied by PLS investors, that Sayona's SP is going to languish more.

And that's just the way the market works unfortunately. Investors are going to be more attracted to the safer bet with the same growth prospects which is delivering a cash ' yield ' return on top of the growth component if it eventuates.

So this is why Sayona needs to be smarter in how it delivers its ' Growth ' story

So It ( Sayona ) not only has to be BETTER than the rest , it has to be SIMPLY the BEST !! .....at what it does and how it delivers on its statements made and goals set.

So there is a lot going on which is ' extraneous ' to that of simply waiting on when favorable news will be delivered. Even the SYAOC options are potentially playing out a role here as well. Because we're basically in the home stretch until their maturity with ZERO time value remaining , so they can in effect act as a ' Handbrake ' as they enter their final period to conversion and until the air is cleared on the dilution side effect as well. And the reasons this is the case is twofold in that a.) there is no market for them except those prepared to sell it down just to get out , and b.) there are obvious uncertainties to those who have paid like I stated the other day , the 80 odd million who have paid over 18.0 cents and above who may now be a bit gunshy in going ahead in the conversion and the question as to whether to tip in another 2.0 cents to the already way above price they have paid.....and if they do when is it likely they will see a return to profit or break-even on their decision.

So in my opinion , the Brokers circling around Sayona's SP at the moment know this , and are the ones wanting to perhaps scoop them up if the SP were to come under further pressure and a deal were to be done for them to grab any potential ' shortfall '.

And I've seen this all play out before when the Head SP is in a weaker trend heading into conversion compared to those which are enjoying a solid uptrend. Its like most of these 80 million which had transacted at higher prices are really ' out of the money ' now in terms of the holder and the price they had paid.

O.K if the SP was still powering along at 27 - 30 cents and above ......but not the way it is now obviously.

So I feel we'll have to wait until the OC's expire , and what the outcome is on conversion as part of the overall resolve of the current softer sentiment on the SP.

Should have the mandatory 28 day notice in regards the OC's out by no later than Monday I would think.