General Discussion Topics, page-93950

First 93950 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
arfbarf

3,274 Posts.

1383

27/03/23

22:47

Post #: 66985490
Share

Originally posted by Kevo88: ↑

Well the fact we have already produced any SC6 which we have should be ecstatic news for us holders. Not many producers come online and start producing the good stuff immediately. Granted there could always be ramp up issues.

But even if we cant produce SC6 and its just under I guess this is what management have to establish before they can commit to offtake? Thats the only reasons I think they havent released the information.

I have no doubt we have some serious buyers lined up but they are probably barking the same tune. Before we sign up to buy your product we want a sample and we want to know you can produce x amount. Once we see that, sign us up.

The only comparison I can draw is with Ioneer which I have some knowledge of. But as we are a producer now its not really a fair like for like comparison.

All I see is that they have to wait until 2026 to be a producer (if all goes well). Comparitively if all goes well for us on SC6 grading and meeting output thats 3 and a half years of production relative to a peer.

So lets assume some conservative figures here.
2023 (half year) - $100M earnings.
2024 - $300M earnings.
2025 - $300M earnings.
2026 - $300M earnings.

So over the same time period your looking at a company that has over 1B in expected earnings relative to one that is waiting for permit to produce.
Granted they are expected resource expansion news in the near term. But when permit best case is next year in January. Followed by at best a 2 year build time. Thats very limited news and limited growth. Its also no cash inflow.

By that same timeframe, SYA would have assessed the viability of carbonate and be in a similar position regarding producing Carb or not as they are going straight to carbonate on their $825M project.

An with the addition of cashflow we also too have expected resource expansion.

But a project that is already in production can sooner expand its output than one that has not started. This is already clearly viable in the 600M of INR vs the 1.6B of SYA.

Risk factor for SYA - grading and output not being met, PLL would get most of it, if this happens.
Risk factor for INR - permit, project development delays, output/grade issues

Seems like a lot more immediate risk in the near term for INR than SYA. Again reflected in market cap

Expand

I don't quite agree with your assessment of "serious buyers" requiring further clarification because Tesla and LG had no problem buying Piedmont's share of NAL's output. LG has actually gone as far as to make a $75 million equity investment into PLL.

I think that our delay is likely tied into other pending stuff (Carbonate plant, Moblan, or maybe even Amos). Or perhaps the amount of sc6 that NAL can generate on a yearly basis.

If I am not wrong, PLL has only sold 100k of their 113k+/yr allotted amount.

Last edited by arfbarf: 27/03/23

SYA Price at posting: 18.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

ACW

Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

CHM

Leukaemia patient shows complete response in Chimeric Therapeutics' latest trial

Arika to pump $3.2M into gold exploration at WA's Yundamindra following strong maiden program

RCE

Recce eyes Indonesia for novel anti-infective as Indo-Aus ties grow stronger

COD

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

There are more pages in this discussion • 50,389 more messages in this thread...

First 93950 Last

Add SYA (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 3.5¢		Change 0.004(12.9%)		Mkt cap ! $339.6M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
3.3¢	3.6¢	3.2¢	$1.651M	49.01M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
33	2736220	3.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
3.6¢	9163297	42

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
31	2673777	0.035
27	5153805	0.034
22	9228238	0.033
21	5744814	0.032
18	8369812	0.031

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.036	9163297	42
0.037	10005165	35
0.038	10619367	27
0.039	7448059	25
0.040	6106437	34

Last trade - 13.02pm 07/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

SYA (ASX) Chart

General Discussion Topics, page-93950

Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

Leukaemia patient shows complete response in Chimeric Therapeutics' latest trial

Arika to pump $3.2M into gold exploration at WA's Yundamindra following strong maiden program

Recce eyes Indonesia for novel anti-infective as Indo-Aus ties grow stronger

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

General Discussion Topics, page-93950

Top Stories

Actinogen Medical ramps up Alzheimer’s treatment trials, targeting fast-track global approvals

Leukaemia patient shows complete response in Chimeric Therapeutics' latest trial

Arika to pump $3.2M into gold exploration at WA's Yundamindra following strong maiden program

Recce eyes Indonesia for novel anti-infective as Indo-Aus ties grow stronger

Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) enters rights issue to further exploration in South Australia

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News