General Discussion Topics, page-95102

Just playing around with Dougal's figures-

2023

C$85m x 4 = C$340M for 120,000

equates to 340M less costs
costs = C$777/t minus Authier C$105= C$672/t....672x 120,000= C$80,640,000

EBITDA= 340,000,000- 80,640,000=

C$259,360,000 for the JV for this year CY 2023 or AU$288,820,000

2024 (assuming no Authier ore)

(basically double everything)

240,000,000sc6

680,000,000 less costs C$161,280,000

EBITDA= C$518,720,000 for the JV or AU$577,640,000

Tax will be minimal 2023, and possibly 2024.

We will also have the new capital expenditure tax credit for 30%

So EPS for 2024

earning/shares=

518720000/8900000000=

5.8c/share

or in au dollars

577,640,000/8900000000=

AU 6.5c/share

PE ratio=depends on the stock price next year.

EG, if we are 50c then

50/6.5= 7.7

comparisons-
SYAQ EPS 6.5c PE 7.7
PLS EPS 56c PE 6.5
BHP EPS $5.35 PE 8.4
FMG EPS $2.80 PE 7.7

Due to market condition, most SP's have contracted and PE's are sub 10 levels....very cheap!
For example BHP's PE pre covid was around 24

SO, If we apply a PE of 10, still very conservative in a bull market, it takes the sp to 65c

See what you guys think.....

I have also attached the PFS chart with updated CAD figures...this is NAL only, no Authier

Brings the NPV for NAL to C$1,651B or AU$ 1.832B, which is kind of what we think NAL alone is worth. That is more than our current market cap.

The SC6 price of C$2833.3 is the offtake and PLL price averaged .
And I think the paypack period will be closer to 9 months and be covered by CY2023's earnings.

Happy to be corrected-