Agree Sayona is already in production and the revenue will start...

Agree Sayona is already in production and the revenue will start coming - no doubt about that. I think the biggest focus should be on getting the carbonate downstream production operational as early as possible as PLL have an agreement in place to enjoy the $900/tn contract price until earlier of Life-of-Facility or the production of downstream conversion, which they are targeting for 2026. By then, Moblan should also be close to/ in production, which should add further value to the company.

As for Liontown, Kathleen Valley will be in production from mid-2024. Considering KV has been de-risked and production is going well on track and if we are really comparing the timelines of the "in-production" vs "going to be in production", we are looking at another 12 months until the product hits the market.

The annual projected cash flow for the first year of production at NAL is US$340 million - see below - it's from the spreadsheet that was done by one of the fellow holders (I think it was@SplitFusion - apologies if I got it wrong and would like to give credit to the creator):

It doesn't take into account anything other than the spod from NAL nor the revenue post-PLL contract




But a fair comparison would be to look at the After-Tax NPV of both companies. I won't post the figures for LTR here but the numbers are astounding.


The importance of the IRA is certainly a great benefit to take advantage of. However, Liontown is also eligible for the IRA as the eligibility for qualification for the IRA is to NOT have battery components manufactured by a foreign entity of concern - see below:




So the prospect is definitely there in the long term. Patience will be needed in the next 2-3 years before things really begin to take off. If one can be patient until then (or the shorts are gone), then the rewards are certainly there.

My intention was not to cross-promote, up-ramp or down ramp. I was just making an unbiased comparison.


IMO. Not a financial advice. DYOR.