It's such an intriguing discussion, which I've only started following as a newb. I bought in at $0.022 when the PLL deal made the news, sold out at $0.048, bought back in at $0.038, and I'm back out today at $0.042. So I'm absolutely chuffed with SYA's performance, and I'm astonished people seem to be forgetting this thing rose 5x in a month or so. Realistically though, I'm with
@Silent-Bubbles - there is some strong competition in the NAL bid and SYA have a 33% chance, at best, of winning it. The fact that it has been dragging on for so long suggests that no one had a stand out bid, until the 23rd of September. And I reckon Tesla was at play in that turn of events, but they could just as easily be in bed with any of the bidders. PLL did a deal with SYA because they've got a delivery obligation to meet with Tesla, and there were probably a few beers involved - Aussie to Aussie, but if you're Tesla, you're not going to be swayed by a beer or an Aussie accent, you want a rock solid local supply chain, and I dare say SRG has a significant home town advantage in delivering on what is CLEARLY a political sh** storm around this. Either way, with a 33% chance, at best, of winning NAL, the SYA share price isn't going any further upwards in a hurry, and if it's bad news on NAL on March 26, it's going south quick.
So my prediction on the SYA SP is sideways, if not slightly down until March 26 when the winning bidder is (hopefully) announced. That's if there even is a winning bid. They could always just nationalise NAL. So, on chances of probability, SYA won't win, and the SP will plummet back to who knows where, then everyone except the die-hard will re-evaluate the risk and upside on Authier, again, which at an NPV of around $200M suggests a market cap of somewhere around $200M. We're sitting at $150M now, which means everyone's pretty much banking on environmental approval now, although no one knows where the money is coming from to do pretty much anything on the cards. BAPE on Authier does look reasonably solid in the long run, they've put a lot of hard yards in, but I called up the SYA office the other day to ask where it's at, and they said it could still be months until they hear back from the Government on that, and then it could be another round of amendments, and then back again, so don't hold your breath.
I love SYA and the story, and everything it could be, but the odds of making much more money any time soon are looking similar to the roulette wheel. I'm tapping out until after March 26, and then I think it's going to be another great buying opportunity.
Sorry if that's sacrilege, but convince me I'm wrong?
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