General Discussion Topics, page-123560

The twelve month price forecast for lithium carbonate equivalent is approximately 150CNY versus circa 160CNY today so we can see already the majority of the decline has happened. Coupled with a greater EV penetration rate than in previous years demand will plateau at a higher level. The other key reason which I believe demand in China had been dampened is the risk of trade tariffs from both EU and US launching almost simultaneous investigations into china's interference in the battery metal markets. Coupled with that you have the IRA provisions actually mandating that a certain amount of battery metal must be sourced within US affiliated trade partners (as opposed to foreign entities of concern). In short/medium term this bodes well for SYA- ultimately what it means the plateauing of prices at a higher level than in previous year (granted we have witnessed declines in recent times), and US and EU legislation against China will mean massive reshoring of metal production to the states and Canada. Whats happening locally in the states - delays on permits and planning. Which means anyone in physical production will do great. All commentators on lithium are saying buyers in China are trying to hold off as they don't know what trade restrictions or tariffs they will face from US and EU. The Chinese are clearly targeting the export market. They will only be able to hold off for so long- stocks are and have been depleted. Usually Q3 was restocking period - they will be 1 quarter behind on restocking by December. Or course the macro economic environment will have an effect but equally we are already seeing a major drop in inflation in EU countries- despite two wars running concurrently. Oil expected to hit $150 a barrel will impact disposable incomes, but equally will force people to adopt EV quicker than anticipated IMO. We are facing perpetual high oil prices and this will mean the economics of buying a combustion engine just won't stack up. Just look at Toyota's $8 billion investment in South Carolina. Toyota also just last week announced breakthroughs on solid state batteries as did some Chinese companies.