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Silent-Bubbles

12,830 Posts.

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21/01/24

10:18

Post #: 71983841
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Originally posted by SplitFusion: ↑

I have been looking at this and trying to come up with a guess as well. I have a few differences in my thinking but I still come up with about a 14 million profit.

I think the 2 main differences I see in your calcs and mine are in price of what is sold and number of tones shipped.

so first off if you look at the tones shipped last quarter you will see a JV shipment of 19200 and a PLL shipment of 29011.
So yes we are due around $21,000,000 this quarter for shipments that occurred in the previous quarter.

2nd - I don't feel that we will sell 50,000 tones in Q2. Here is a breakdown of what has been produced and what has been sold since March, with an estimate of what I think will happen in Oct - Dec.

We know from guidance at PLL they were aiming to receive 56,500 by December 31 and they had already received 29,011, this leaves a remaining shipment of 27,489. Based on estimated production I think that may be the only other shipment that occurred in the quarter. You could argue that they could have squeezed 1 more in during late December but even if they did we would not see the revenue from it til next Quarter. If in fact my projections are accurate then there is absolutely no way that the realized price could be 1550/t.

Even so I still see about a 14 Million profit for the quarter.

PLL true up costs for production from June to December would be (82,753 * 1200) *.25 = A$ 24,825,900, so lets call that A$ 25 Million. You would then need to add 25% of the exploration costs of NAL drill program and 25% cost of the crushed ore dome and the dry tailing pond construction. All-in I am placing them around 27 Million (could be more)

I am going to assume that most CAPEX projects are being cut to $0 and exploration is completed. So I don't expect a ton of dollars going out in Q2 for those projects.

Other costs should remain fairly much the same.

One item that has been discussed is this reference on the PLL quarterly.

I wanted to note to everyone that the true up for PLL to SYAQ is a combined Q3 and Q4 number, this only represents what they expect in Q4.

Expand

Yeah that's what great about estimating financial numbers. You have your accruals and you have you ' Movements' in cash etc.... as well as the ' Unknowns ' like JV contributions - aka SOQUEM and Piedmont.

But again , what I find interesting in the latest comments by KP about ending cash balances is that if indeed your 27,489 tonnes or the 29,610 shown in the Sayona Quarterly slide for Q4 2023 went to Piedmont and the JV , then why is Piedmont's ' Movement ' in cash currently running at some approximate US$30.3 million net adverse expenditure movement to cash.

If we then assume the spodumene went to the offtake at an average of $US$1,550 then their TOTAL expenditure over receipts would have to be some US$76.196 million if we assert the 29,610 tonnes went out to them per Sayona's forecast numbers.

The other point to make here is that for the 3 months to September 30 , Sayona had produced a cumulative tonnage of concentrate of 64,606 but only sold a total of 48,211 for a difference of 16,495 tonnes theoretically produced but UNSOLD as at 30th September 2023.

So I guess I'm looking for some level of ' Catch - Up ' with the figures.

We also have the fact that the ROM stockpiles were down 22% at September 30 AFTER the downturn in production due the Rod Mill tangle.

So all in all , I feel as though there are a number of other factors which should they play out in our favor , should end up resulting in a higher CASH receipts to the JV.

SYA Price at posting: 4.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
34 Upvote

6 Great analysis

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