Waiting for confirmation?.Yes SYA gained 1 pip to finish at 4.2, volume was comparatively small, just over 105m shares traded. This was one of our lowest volume in under 4 weeks. I had been writing that we need to get under 100m to feel volatility/shorters are not in control. It was nearly there. But we want that after getting some big recovery, rather than now. Whole day shorters were trying to defend 4.2. In previous plays, usually other way round - they were always on the offensive. So some change is happening, but we need more to make some good gains. Lets hope we see that in the next few days.
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Yesterday US Li stocks had a bounce along with the indices. ALB got to 119 and many other US Li stocks had gains around 4/5%. So after a big push down from previous 2 days, some signs that we may have seen a bottom of this phase, but we still wait for confirmation. Reason being it could just be a bounce (some call it a dead cat bounce). So we wait.
ASX Li stocks today were not in the mood to go anywhere. Most stocks had recovered from their bottom of yesterday and were trading in the upper range towards the close of yesterday. Although US Li stocks did well yesterday, ASX Li were not buying it for now. Usually ASX Li follows US Li, but today it didn't happen. Why? I think there are 2 reasons. First, yesterday ASX Li bounced from its lows in morning, in anticipation that US Li may do all right. So it pre-empted that and made gains for US Li rise - and it played out according, yesterday ASX Li got it right. Secondly, Li stocks have had a rough ride. Punters now need confirmation before they become interested. So we wait for tonight US Li. Most ASX Li stocks just traded in the same range, small up and down for most. Volume comparatively was much low than average - another indication that punters not ready to buy yet without confirmation, but not anxious enough to sell as well. So a small stalemate.
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Personally no trades for me today.
So what may happen tomorrow? Its a very tricky scenario. US Li had a very good gain yesterday, sometimes its difficult to do that 2 days in a row. But, stocks have fallen decent in last few days, so all are still much below their recent upper level - hence one would think they have to continue their march if we believe Li sentiment is at least neutral if not positive. US Futures in slight red currently. Many US Li stock futures also in small red. But its still very early. Two key plays to watch. ALB to get above 128 - that's the first key number, but its still a bit far for a single day, though yesterday ALB did a big rise. If it eases, anything above 115 may be fine. SQM to get over 50. If we get a good overnight US Li play, most ASX Li which were hesitant today, may cut loose tomorrow. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best.
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