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Rupfel

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05/04/24

21:02

Post #: 73214891
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Originally posted by dc1234 ↑

When will Li macro hit euphoria?
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A better week, but not great. Moved from 3.9 to 4.1, unfortunately close to our bottom, rather than making a jump towards 5.
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So we got a good announcement yesterday, it brought us back from our lows, but could not take us much ahead. Why is that? I feel, currently, Li stocks are running on Li macro. If individual stocks get an announcement, they may do a small runner, but that's it, a small runner. Soon macro takes over. I feel we are experiencing that over here. So after a small runner, we wait for macro to take us higher.
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So how is the macro looking? Not great. A big slide by Li stocks yesterday by US Li stocks. I have been saying for months that ALB needs to be over 128, to even having a positive thought. Yesterday, it dropped to 121. So we are playing with weakness, SYA and other Li stocks. So no surprise to see a drop today.
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So what may happen next week? We need Li macro to improve. We need ALB to get over 128, maybe to get to 150 for a positive outlook. I believe till that happens, we will be meandering. If ALB does not hold 118, we could see a new 52 week lows in low 100s. But if it holds and get towards 150, most Li stocks including SYA will do well. Let's hope it happens that way. Enjoying my time in Queenstown and hope you have a wonderful weekend. All the best.

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Maybe ALB have their own issues.
SQM is 8 times the size of ALB in Chile.
They are not in control of Greenbushes and production rates.
Their biggest.customer in last qtr was Umicore circa 6% of production which cmonaussie alerted me to.
Not Tesla related. I always had the majority of ALB Li going to Panasonic then to Tesla.
ALB are relying more on spot price than longterm agreements which they said was their new strategy about 6 mths ago.
ALB are losing their gloss IMO.
My pick on a Li producer or influencer on the world Li market would be Ganfeng.

SYA Price at posting: 4.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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