SYA

11.2%

4.4¢ sayona mining limited

Sums it up perfectly, Whiskey is one of there people that are...

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Breakoutthecash

1,843 Posts.

466

09/04/24

13:53

Post #: 73258741
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Originally posted by Kevo88: ↑

But Whisky,

Wasnt it you that stated we wont see a move up in share price until we see some spod price increases?
We have seen a steady state increase in spod price since start of March we are now approaching a month an a half of spod price increase and yet have had no corresponding share price increase.
An in your latest statement your stating that based off this recent cost review we wont see a change in market cap until the operation proves itself as viable.

But hang on a second, this cost review has already deemed NAL viable on the basis they are proceeding with full steam ahead on ramp up and roll out of capital improvements and bipased C&M as an option.

So effectively the market is already aware the operation isnt in C&M territory and also is already aware of all of what you stated regarding weather, mining & capital efficiency improvements. On that basis investors should be flocking in because their is minimal risk to reward from this point. The operational efficiencies wont shut down operations for extended periods of time and the upside return outweights current operational risk side factors.

An as the old saying goes in investments its "buy the rumour" ie what they plan on achieving and selling the "news" ie once its achieved.

There are a number of other issues here that paint the picture better:

1) Lithium spod price increase doesnt simply correlate to increase share price as its been proven this past month. Especially when we have an OTA in place for the first half of what we produce at a capped price from PLL.
2) We bear all the operational risk, they take 50% spod, and from a potential investors perspective the downgrade in guidance (overall tonnage) smashes our potential EBITA and ultimate net take home or IRR.
3) Ramp up costs are from a market perspective clearly hindering our ability to attain new investors.
4) Though debt free the SoI is a sticking point for some potential investors also.
5) Due to the sector wide sell off from January 2023 its going to take SYA and other recent producers longer than other non-producers to bounce back due to the capital outlay over this time accelerating when burning cash.

So in 6 months if spod has lifted to say 1500USD/t and the Mar 24 worst QTRly is out of the way and we have reduced are overall unit cost per ton, what price do you anticipate SYA will be around?

I only ask because most here think our current price of 400M is a joke....

400M MC puts our valuation at the same as Ioneer again I like to compare SYA to other lithium hopefuls.
They have 1 asset
Their share of potential revenue is 10,000 carb per annum
They are yet to receive a permit, they still havent fully established where the capital will all come from to fund the project build, they still have potential build issues, they still have potential ramp up issues.

Needless to then mention why SYAs value should not be the same as there's as I have mentioned it countless times in the past.

Yet here we are on parity with them. From the above would it not be more convincing that larger chains have us held in place at present. Wouldnt that be evident from most other Li stocks gaining traction over the past month while we havent moved up at all?

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Sums it up perfectly, Whiskey is one of there people that are 'positively blind' I'm afraid...
I urge people to just ignore him as one day you will no longer hear from him when he decides to get out....he's hurting to but will never admit it.

Last edited by Breakoutthecash: 09/04/24

SYA Price at posting: 3.9¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Last 4.4¢		Change -0.006(11.2%)		Mkt cap ! $452.9M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
4.9¢	4.9¢	4.4¢	$4.175M	91.73M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
36	6865450	4.3¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
4.4¢	3328093	30

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
36	6865450	0.043
30	7533387	0.042
36	5487938	0.041
74	8459310	0.040
19	5513204	0.039

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.044	3293409	28
0.045	3931335	36
0.046	4608059	17
0.047	4856210	23
0.048	2652867	10

Last trade - 14.29pm 21/05/2024 (20 minute delay)


Last 4.4¢		Change -0.006 ( 11.2 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
4.9¢	4.9¢	4.3¢	66132396
Last updated 14.48pm 21/05/2024 ?

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