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Chinese batterygiants sees long-term rise for lithium prices

By ColinHay - March 13, 2024

Hopes of a rebound in the globallithium market are being boosted by the growing confidence of lithium batterydevelopers in China.

A number of Chinese specialists areamongst the world’s leading producers of lithium-ion batteries for the electricvehicle (EV) market.

According to Statista, China-based CATLwas the leading lithium-ion battery maker as of the end of 2023 with a marketshare of almost 37%.

Compatriot BYD ranked second with amarket share of 15.8%.

Now, Ganfeng Lithium, a powerhouse inthe global lithium battery supply chain, has suggested that battery metalprices are set for a long-term uptrend.

Stabilisation benefits

Ganfeng chair Li Liangbin recently saidthat China’s lithium industry would benefit from a stabilisation in batterymetal prices.

He said lithium demand from producersof power batteries, energy storage and elsewhere will keep growing amid “anirreversible trend” of global energy transition.

Li told Reuters that if lithium pricescan stabilise between around $17,000 and $32,000, it might create the bestdevelopment environment for the whole industry.

Turnarounds coming

Financial services company UBS believeslithium prices are turning thanks to a significant decline in the criticalmetals’ surplus levels.

UBS analyst Lachlan Shaw has reportedthat the global lithium supply surplus for 2024 is now at 94,000tonnes—significantly lower than the previous estimate of 142,000t.

UBS says that lithium supply is beingcurtailed, slowed or delayed with the surplus levels now around four weeks ofsupply compared to a previous six weeks.

EVs set to rebound

Meanwhile, leading global investmentfirm Goldman Sachs has suggested falling battery metals prices may lead to arebound in EV demand.

Goldman Sachs research expects EVs toreach breakthrough levels in terms of cost parity (IE without subsidies) withinternal combustion engine cars in some markets next year.

It also believes battery innovation isalso helping reduce battery costs and that regulatory tailwinds will continueto favour the EV sector.