Anyone else excited about Tabba Tabba, Moblan and Lac Albert, Kimberley, Mt. Dove, ect. ?
Or is it just me sitting here high on hopeium thinking they might be worth something ?
It is ridiculous to me that after we have proved our ability to extract and produce Lithium Spodumene Concentrate at NAL and selling it to the market (and LG / Tesla) that we are judged only on a few months startup results and the high opex there is starting up what is THE ONLY North American Lithium production that has Spodumene available to buy, the other one (Tanco) owned by Sinomine Resource Group Co. Ltd., a Chinese public company will not be a competitor for us, as (afaik) it all goes to China.
Risking getting some flack here:
Patriot seems to be everyone's darling, and ignoring the fact that it is pretty much submerged in a lake and half a decade from ever getting into production (Mine commissioning and operation scheduled to start after 2029) it still sits at 1.312B AUD MC. ??????
Does that make any sense to you ?
Still they're busy doing non binding MOU's ect.
Who is the competition ? and when will they be able to compete ?
And do the Chinese Spod prices even matter now that it is obvious to everyone that USA and Canada wants to decouple from the Chinese producers ?
on the global market app. 80% of the lithium goes into Batteries, and at the rate this market is growing the supply gap that i have been ranting about for a while now is going to be massive. It simply does not add up what the analysts from the major banks and wallstreet projects. Seems they miss that not all lithium is equal, Lepidoshite is too expensive, especially at current prices (so they have to go UP), Brine is not that scalable as they make it out to be, there are limits to how much they can pump up before they interfere with the aquifer/drinking water, and also afaik it takes a couple of years for the ponds to yield any.
Yeah Chile Argentina ect, but they have to ramp too, when ?
And Africa ? pfft.
We are imo sitting on a future money printer, and the flywheel is just starting to rotate, wait for the speed to pick up pace !
It will be a few quarters before we really know our production costs going forward. and i do NOT think Li prices will stay at these low levels, i believe everyone agrees that the bottom is in.
Also been ranting about S Curves, the adoption rate of EV's are getting faster, it must be obvious to all where this is going. And funny enough so is the reverse effect on ICE cars.
Plot these two together and you have an X curve.
Picture is self explaining (but please note the actuals and the rate in 2025-2028):
No way Lithium is replaced as the main source for this transition in the next 4-5 years, and no way the PMT's and similar projects gets online in time.
My crystal ball say "HOLD" so that's what i'm doing !
What you do is entirely up to you, DYOR please.
/J
(20min delay)
