Like you, I believe Townsville is quite unlikely to go ahead. While initially hopeful, the lack of commitment from government, delays in infrastructure for Lansdowne and difficulties with supplying the domestic market make this a difficult project to sell (at this time). Magnis has said a number of times this is a greenfields project and not their priority, though they are hopeful they can come to an agreement to produce a product within Australia. For now, let's just not discuss this until further updates are provided.
I have to say, it is a little bit of a relief for me that you won't be bringing up Townsville again. It is getting a bit tiresome.
Regarding Nachu, I continue to have doubts regarding the Tanzanian Governments ability to support foreign investment and project developments. It is 100% in their best interest to do so given the potential revenues they could receive, but the past leaves a bitter taste.
The recent dealings at least provide some hope with recent agreements/approvals with GOT and other foreign mining interests within the Country, but still going slower than hoped. The new GOT leadership is definitely a positive for Magnis, other mining companies and the Tanzanian peoples. Nachu absolutely has a better chance of going ahead then Townsville, especially compared to 12 months ago, but developments are still some time away. Let's wait for updated BFS, additional offtakes and funding. I have gone from skeptical of Nachu, to hopeful, and it now plays a slightly larger role in my valuation assumptions. It is a huge project with great potential, I just hope GOT will come to the party. This will be a massive boost to Magnis future potential.
As you said, let's just talk about New York. This is by far the most promising project MNS has a stake in. Given the construction has begun and semi-automated production commenced, this project has definitely surpassed "shovel-ready" status. Let's continue to look forward to updates regarding construction of the plant and ramp-up of semi-auto production.
As a benchmark for speculation, and all IMO, I do not expect any new Offtake agreements for iM3NY in the near-term (another 3-6 months) as the testing of commercial cells produced can take some time. There will be a number of potential offtakers that have been testing C4V technology over the past few years, and they would just need to ensure the final commercial product meets the same standard, so these offtakes could develop quite quickly (potentially proving my 3-6 month comment wrong). Though there would also be a number of potential large offtakers that would be testing these commercial cells for the first time. Initial production will supply existing binding offtake agreements and it will be good to see initial revenues coming in. The more offtakers implement the commercial use of this technology, the more confidence potential offtakers will be in signing agreements also, potentially reducing the turn-around between initial contact and contracts signed.
"Now let’s just talk about NY..." - Fritzl
MNS Price at posting:
51.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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