General Discussion Topics, page-5416

Thanks for this SGB14 - very good Intell you have posted. I am assuming the figures quoted are USD - so equates to circa $300m and circa $1,100m in AUD.

As I have mentioned in past posts, I concur with your analysis of the likely need for a sell-down of equity % in iM3NY to fund expansion. If they are successful with these applications, it would substantially increase the current value of iM3NY and allow for a sell down to a new strategic partner without massive dilution.

Firstly - the following is purely for illustrative purposes.

For example, at current investment level for a 1.8GWh operation and with the $35 tax credits, the plant potentially has a (circa) US$75/kwh operating margin (EBITDA) which I estimate at $125m. If it was capital constrained at that point, an investor would likely place a "limited growth" EBITDA multiple in deriving a valuation (so, maybe 12x) = US$1,500m. If they needed to raise US$1,000m to expand, then the incoming investor would then want about 40% of the total equity for their investment (being 1,000 / (1,500+1000)) which would water MNS down to a 36% stake.

But if they have the grants and loans, then these would reflect via the valuation multiple looking like a growth multiple - possibly 40x current EBITDA as there is now a clear financial pathway to, say, a 10GWh operation (where the potential annual EBITDA could be more like US$700m. At 40x US$125m EBITDA = US$5,000 valuation.

Back to my illustrative example - we now we have a prospective current valuation of US$5,000m (or roughly 7x prospective EBITDA upon expansion), and so for their US$1,000 the new investor would be looking at 16.7% equity and MNS would retain 50% of this expanding asset.

The above assumes we are talking about a purely financial investor - if the investor is an OEM looking to expand and secure their supply chain, the equation probably shifts a bit more in favour of existing equity holders of iM3NY.

If they are successful with their applications, it will open up a range of alternate scenarios on how to take this forward and also likely see them with several parties wanting to be involved - so they potentially can pick and choose the deal and the counterpart(s).

GLTA & DYOR