Old 2019 The US contraceptive market is valued at US$5.4 billion according to IQVIA. Short acting combined hormonal contraceptives1(CHCs) componentestimated at US$4.0 billion
Current combined hormonal contraceptives generated US$3.6 billion in sales according to IQVIA for the 12-monthperiod ending January 20211.
Previous breakdown in 2019 of $4b The brand market for CHCs represent 56% of the value.
Top four products being
NUVARING contraceptive ring with US$960 million in annual sales
LO LOESTRIN®FE oral contraceptive with US$800 million
XULANE®contraceptive patch with US$290 million
TAYTULLA®oral contraceptive with US$170 million in annual sales
*according to IQVIA3.
Mayne Pharma will pay up to US$295 million total consideration cumulative net sales of E4/DRSP exceed US$2.25billion.
US$8.75million in cash and 4.95% ordinary shares at closing
US$11million in cash and a further 4.65% ordinary shares following FDA approval
In addition, there is a transfer pricecomprising fixed and variable componentbased on a percentage of net sales over the term of the license
Mithra is also entitled to a Mayne Pharma Board position.
The new appointment will besubject to shareholder approval at the next Annual General Meetingin November 2021.
First payment
Actual number of shares issued at closing and regulatory approval is 168.9 million and is based on 9.6% of the expanded capital base. The equity value at closing is US$28.7million based on 83.1million issued shares, AUD:USD rate of 0.675and a 10-day VWAP share price of A$0.511
Share value A$42,518,518
Cash US$8.75 ( A$12,962,963 )
Total $55,481,481
Upcoming FDA Approval payment
US$11m in cash
Issue 85.8m ordinary Mayne Pharma shares
Current VWAP $0.339 ? Exchange rate 0.76
Cash A$14,473,684
Shares A$29,086,200
Total A$43,559,884
@Patrick31 Looks like A$99,041,365 plus a board seat for the time being. And up to US$10m launch cost in 2h2021.
So near as make no difference A$110,000,00 upfront capital cost. Let me know where I've gone wrong in my calculations.....
Contingency is for an average of US$112.5m net sales per year. The only touted figure was "in excess" of US$200 net sales. *Operating expenses expected to be ~25% of peak net sales
And previously claimed that it would be EBITDA accretive in the first year.
Margin on generics is ~30% and on specialty products is ~80% If we work on US$200 then that gives us a range of US$60M - US $160M If we assume a 25% operating expense then that is US$50M
Lol.... so the margin better be a lot closer to 80% like the current SPD. So..... profit of US$10-110M ( A$13 - 144M )
At 10% discount rate the present value is A$110m at constant A$13M over next 20 years .... or present value A$936m at constant A$144M per year.
Obviously it doesn't work like that, but to give you an idea.
MYX Price at posting:
32.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)