I have owned NC6 for about two years now. If there is one thing I have noticed, since just after the IP, there has been a slow and steady decrease in SP, but always on low volume. The IP price was something like 32cents, I think, and it immediately dropped to about 18cents before it started it's slow trajectory downward.
There have been a few good days, like more than a million sold and a noticeable increase after the Codi agreement, but on the whole, the volume on this stock has been really small. The 4 week average volume is 164,407 shares and it has been a particularly busy period since the CR was announced.
There are currently only 12 sellers for 378,447 units on the ASX. AS of the annual report last year, the Top 20 Shareholders of NC6 hold 65.78% of shares on issue and most of us would have bought in at IPO (although not me). This is an incredibly tightly held stock.
What I am going to suggest here is that, in light of the tight register, the likelihood that major holders bought in at IP, and the general trajectory of the SP, that there is unlikely to be many people prepared to sell off large quantities of stock until the SP is worth at least 32cents. Even then you might night find that many sellers. Once the CR has finished, that will mean a MC of about $32 million. It might take a few good announcements to get there, but I would anticipate a pretty rapid rise once the good news does start flowing. We just need to hope that the Board knows what they are doing and they are on the right trajectory to get us to a point where were are making (small) revenues by the end of the year. I honestly expect the announcement of first revenues to propel us to in the range of 30 cents.
Some might suggest that 2020 is a pivotal year for NC6, and it is, but I think 2021 will out biggest year by far. That is the year when we become a proper profit-making company.
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