Hi
@DaveFisherI disagree for a number of reasons.
First, the correction experienced by 'peers' on the US market is not entirely negative for Incannex. As money flows back into these companies, a share of those funds will flow into IXHL far more easily than if the market had not corrected. Rebalancing a portfolio to include new, attractive stock, is much easier if you have already sold and are sitting on significant cash reserves, than it is if you are fully invested during a bull market.
As such, we should expect a faster adoption rate in the US if we time our entry to ride the wave of a recovery. There is no guarantee that we will successfully ride that wave, of course, but the opportunity is there.
Furthermore, as many of us have mentioned: 'peers' is a term used lightly. Incannex offers a uniquely diversified and de-risked portfolio of development programs and IP. While buying back into the market, it is quite possible that some investors will decide to load up more heavily with IXHL than with its competitors (who are focused on psychedelics that are more susceptible to global regulatory hurdles). If we achieve parity with Compass at its current, retraced evaluation, our market cap should hit 820M AUD: bringing us very close to back to all time high. Of course if the market recovers over the next few months, that market cap will rise with it.
Yes, phase 3 trials are the main catalyst, but successful human trials of any phase are still major catalysts in their own right. You seem to be advocating people should sell now if not willing to hold 2-3 years, but I don't think you honestly believe the SP would go lower than it is now upon positive IHL-42x results, which could drop any day now, and almost certainly within the next 4 weeks.
Last but not least, there are a number of opportunities in the news flow to come this year, to attract M&A offers for some of our drug development programs.
IHL-42x will become a real and present danger to a number of companies already on the defensive in the OSA space, upon positive results in February. Even more so after pre-IND with the FDA for that drug, especially if the approval pathway that results from that meeting is a favourable one.
IHL-216a may well also attract early M&A interest this year. Unlikely but possible. When a pharmaceutical looks at an acquisition, they weigh up all the development programs of the company of interest. So any one program that catches the eye, could result in a valuation of other programs.
IHL-675a, upon favourable human safety/tolerability results (phase one, currently under way), could become an attractive pre-emptive licensing or acquisition target for any number of pharmaceutical behemoths. The addressable market across all three potential indications for IHL-675a is massive - circa 170B USD per year, within the next few years.
There will be a lot of M&A dollars floating around this year. Betting on Incannex not being a target for some of those dollars for the next 2-3 years is a risky bet in my view.
For those not wanting to be fellow travellers to commercialisation and/or licensing/acquisition, there are quite probably better times than now to sell in the short term as well. Unless of course your goal is to sell and buy in lower in the very short term, and perhaps you'd like to see others do the same to help bring about that lower reentry point?
That said, our circumstances are all different, and if you must sell now, I wish you the best of luck...
