Hey @CognacHennessy
Hope you have been well, old mate.
The site's domain expired without me knowing in February - thought it was going to expire in July, so thought I had plenty of time. So when I spoke to the people behind the domain, they said they only keep backup's of the site for one month. So by the time I realised, it was too late and they didn't have the backup. So hence, the site was already deleted and so no point having a twitter presence when I could just write my thoughts on HotCopper. In any case, my old man passed away soon afterwards and there's been quite a lot to deal with in terms of family stuff. So I haven't really been in the right head space to post much these days anyway; nevertheless, @thevinnys has everyone covered writing his daily masterpieces and I'll pop-in from time to time when I can add something.
In terms on IHL, don't worry - I still own millions of stock and will be around for a long time to come. In fact, I hold nearly 6 million shares across two accounts which is nothing for some people posting on here, but may seem a lot to someone else [sold some into the news flow for the first time ever (notwithstanding selling some to exercise options), surrounding OSA earlier in the year, when the war in Ukraine was heating up and markets were making me nervous - who could have predicted a war and a crash happening at the start of the year!]. I plan on holding around 5 million for the long term (true believer) and selling the rest when markets recover and heat up in the next year or so.
The amount of stock really isn't important at the end of the day, anyway, but that's my current plan (which may change, as things do) if anyone wants to know.
IHL has been a journey of ups and downs for all us long-termers. Buying in at 1-2 cents during early-mid 2019 and waiting ages for people to wake up to the story (i.e. the days that I was posting on the TFM blog in frustration because the market couldn't see further than its nose). When market slowly starting paying attention to the story and the share price started paying off, COVID-19 struck the world and the share price crashed by more than 50% in early 2020 to 3-cents. It took several months for the share price to recover and market to wake up again. The market truly woke up after the options exercise at 4-cents per share in October 2020, sending the share price above 10 cents. The story got out to the masses come 2021, with it and the share price hitting new highs in the low 70-cent range early this year (which at the time, I was thinking the momentum would send us to $1).
Anyway, everyone knows what has happened since then...
The share price has crashed by 67% since early March!!!
My gosh...
The share price normally takes a hit during end of tax year into around the third week of June anyway. But I think this year is different, unfortunately. I think with inflation running high, the Fed will keep on hiking interest rates which might send risk assets lower in the next few months. I don't know when this will stop - I wish I could see the future. Throw in the other central banks hiking interest rates, shrinking balance sheets, the war in Ukraine, ongoing supply issues, the on-and-off lockdowns in China, the housing slowdown, the pending world wide recession, and the US mid-terms in November ----- oh boy. It certainly doesn't look good and it looks like a slow moving train wreck.
The good news is this: I still believe the Fed will rescue markets, after causing a major crisis. They are backed into a corner and there's no way out. I think after causing a deep recession, govts of the world will give more handouts to the low-middle class (causing more inflation) to prop up the economy and central banks will print more money, sending risk assets to the moon.
When does this happen?
Absolutely no clue. Maybe before the US mid-terms...maybe early 2023? Who knows. But I think the world will get messier before it gets better...and I'm slightly afraid of this world we live in (I should stop reading ZeroHedge LOL).
Anyway, the better news: In times like this, regarding IHL, I like to focus on the business - not the share price.
IHL has $40 million cash in the bank with no debt. So given the economic environment that I outlined above, I truly believe IHL is in the best position it could possibly be in with a strong balance sheet. Secondly, we have an elite management team (with a sh*t load of skin in the game) that have multiple drug development programs (secured by IP) ongoing. I think 2022 will be a write off unless the Fed steps in and markets rebound, actually. I think for the rest of the year (and I'm not following the company as closely anymore) the company is planning multiple pre-IND and IND meetings with the FDA. Actually, management know what they are doing and - I think - they are getting things set-up this year in the US so that multiple back-to-back clinical drug development programs can start next year....hopefully when most of the madness in financial markets is over.
Anyway, I have come to realise that things take much longer to work out and so therefore I'm more focused on the big picture these days - rather than the micro details of the story.
In terms of the story, I'd be interested to hear more about the company's favourite drug candidates from APIRx, and what drugs from that product range are they going to focus on in the future...I'd like to get an more specific update around this outside the recent preso. I really like the Canquit product IP and imagine it could be quite popular - and lucrative - if that drug is developed. But OSA, TBI, IHL-675A and the psychedelics programs seem at front and centre in terms of focus and funding for IHL into the future, as we know.
Anyway, I think we'll know more about the companies core plans before the end of the year. I'm confident in the story paying off in the long term and, like I said above, I plan on holding 5 million shares for the long term because I truly believe in the story (IP, management, the drug candidates etc) and the dream is that the share price is worth multiple dollars in the future. I plan on sticking around with my money to see if this dream can eventuate. Remember, at the end of the day, we only need one drug program to be successful and this will take time...but I'm happy to wait for the story to play out and view IHL as the cornerstone of my portfolio.
In short, I believe this year will be a write-off (markets are a mess and the company is getting its ducks in order) and not paying attention to the share price whatsoever. I'm just focusing on the big picture of the story:
1) we have $40M in the bank with no debt in a time when the world seems to be falling apart;
2) own the greatest amount of IP in the sector globally(this is the golden ticket);
3) we have astute management with more skin in the game than we have (they realise the big money will be made with a takeover at multiple dollars, and aren't interested in drawing salaries like most lifestyle companies);
4) we have multiple, advanced drug development programs in the cannabinoids and psychedelics sectors with no or few real competitors, billion dollar market sizes, and significant research/ pre-clinical drug work that hints at success which I have detailed/analysed in the past. Remember, we only need one drug development program to work --- JUST ONE --- and be approved by the FDA to be a extremely successful company.
That's why I'm focused on the big picture and couldn't give a rats ass about the share price/ market crash which I talked about above. Anyway, I'm ranting now. You know my plans and what I think about things now, so I wish us all well.
Peace out and good luck guys/gals.
-TFM
