General discussion, page-15003

could turn out to be brilliance R10

Macros have had and will continue to have a big effect on all stocks.....tried to detail those macro influences below from what i understand of the whole picture

S&P has dropped approx. 11% - 12% since March this year when stimulus was pulled from the markets



1st March 2022 4306
Today 3849

its been a 10 yr bull market in a zero rate environment for 8 of those years
30 trillion of stimulus globally pumped in during this time

So now the Fed is hiking....not really having the desired effect on the S&P.....inflation having a breather but its not really the issue now ....other factors are playing into the equation

inside the market there are warning signs all over the place
- there is a credit crisis but its not in the banks this time .....its in margin loan .....when hedge funds call it in there will some interesting movements
- building stocks down 35%, Bank stocks down 25%, vehicle stocks down 30%, Retail equity stocks down over 20% and falling. the Russell 2000 down over 20%....Nasdaq has been whacked

Utilities, staples like groceries and consumer essentials and pharmaceuticals all up so they are more expensive in declining disposable income environment
Pharmaceuticals between July 21 and July 22 are up 31.6% .....no wonder big pharma are on the hunt for the economically defensive drug advancement / development companies .....that's why IHL will be in their sights as the clinical trials progress
if there is any stock to be bullish on its those delivering medical advancement in these deteriorating conditions

In the current climate the Fed is losing 50 billion a month from its balance sheet and is committed to hiking rates into 2023
3 more hikes at least - indicates inflation is not transitory as they claimed in late 21 and US debt is out of control
( they would have should have lifted rates in 2021 slowly into a cashed up bull so they would be around 2.5% to 3% now - i think we'd have been a lot better off but we are were we are )

with all of this in mind and seeing that QT will increase there is no relief anywhere in the short term
liquidity will dry up as it is already starting to indicate and the asset bubble will stop inflating but that timeline is hard to pick ....if the fed stays dove ish we will really be in all sorts of trouble in the markets
they must be hawkish meaning S&P certainly has a lot more downside and interest rates will move aggressively more to the upside and more pain will be evident in H2 2023

Any company heading into that environment of no available liquidity will not be able to access funds....you need a long runway into 23/24 to survive this coming turmoil ......IHL has that now - financially derisked through a market condition worse than what a lot may expect - there has never been such a market hyper driven with ridiculous liquidity pumping all asset classes way beyond predictable norms.......

Incannex is well placed - the 'product' which is innovative medical addressing unmet need will be highly sort by the hungry big pharms.....it is economically defensive and prices are rising as per above .......return on capital for them will be the order of the day into 23/24 .......perfect storm for IHL .....just might be

I expect the S&P to drop back to about 3200 ....roughly the level shown mid 2020 into 2021
most likely im wrong and its a bit heavy but the Fed was late to act so higher longer deeper is the rule generally
the chart clearly shows that liquidity asset bubble from 2021 to the present imo



I could be completely wrong R10 - but ide rather he here holding than out for all the reasons above - that raise puts that critical cash runway in place for IHL into 23/24 .....yep - could well turn out to be a brilliant move

news flow won't be far off either - see you in the new year.

( as I wrote this a news story hit the headlines about builders going bust......its part of the beginning of what is yet to come and
the market is indicating that very situation)