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Flectional

4,341 Posts.

8411

01/02/23

10:26

Post #: 65998669
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Originally posted by KingHoves: ↑

Just finished reading Ray Dalio's "Principles" for the second time, great read for anyone who has the time from in my opinion one of the GOATs in stock investing. Page 27 lays out a few cases in recent history where increases in inflation and interest rates have lead to market downturns/crashes and high turbulence, looking back now the writing was well on the wall March last year that this would be the path the market would follow AGAIN, but unfortunately I was too arrogant and naïve and thought my beloved IHL would be immune. Thought I would lay out some key points I took away from the book as not cashing out on 10+ bags and now sitting on 3 is an unforgivable mistake in a market segment where timing is everything...
there are two big macro forces to worry about - growth and inflation. Given the current environment (high inflation, contracting growth due to global increases in interest rates), it really isn't plausible for people to be complaining about Joel & the BOD as a cause of a low share price. IHL has reacted in line with the market and in a predictable way to changing market conditions. Initially I also wasn't all for the recent capital raise, but one cant assume a quick fix to the global macro conditions and in fact it could be a very prudent and astute move, he was making a bet either way remember (to take the extra cash now or bet on the economy improving)
don't get hung up on your views of how things should be because you'll miss out learning how they really are. Market conditions have changed, 73c is gone, its not helpful to compare ATHs to the current share price with the macro landslide that has taken place
What is happening now happened in the 1970s, and at other times in history. For anyone who cared to research sufficiently, the slide in share price was entirely predictable based on a changing macroeconomic landscape. Rising interest rates is simply "another one of those"
Don't blame bad outcomes on anyone but yourself, seems like a lot of us as soon as the share price turns to crap forget that we are responsible for our own capital, the vast majority of us could have sold out at a gain. Our SP has been smashed due to Macro factors, just like it was inflated by Macro factors (when the cash rate was at record lows close to 0%!)
This is all in my opinion, and remember I am an idiot. But just thought I would drop this note as ignoring Macro could be at your own peril.
I am happy holding IHL with the long term view as I believe in their fundamentals, but if I had of played this right I would be doing so a lot richer, as I suspect is the case with a lot of disgruntled holders voicing their regret at not selling out at the top

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posted same a while ago....plenty more pain coming yet

Post #: 61538394

indicators are all there for what lies ahead - punters really need to dig in and categorise how much excess money supply remains in equities...till its cleared out dead cat bounces will keep coming

good luck all
IHL Price at posting: 18.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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