IHL 0.00% 4.1¢ incannex healthcare limited

As you probably know, RespireRX's interest in Dronabinol is not...

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    As you probably know, RespireRX's interest in Dronabinol is not news, neither is it news that Dronabinol alone is effective in treating OSA.
    Notice that the wording describing Dr Sud's collaboration with ResolutionRX cites 'a proprietary formulation of Dronabinol'. In essence, Dr Sud is being contracted to help the company maximise the license they have for Dronabinol, applying it towards the treatment of OSA and anorexia. This does not translate, in any shape or form, into 'beating' the formulation Incannex owns the patent for. Of course, what they come up with in the future might outperform IHL-42x, but for the time being, we only have the old news of RespireRX's interest in using Dronabinol to treat OSA, and Sud's appearance to help them do that.

    ResolutionRX's ambition may merely be to offer another option for treatment: the market is big enough for several formulations to find their niche. Frankly it would have surprised me if RespireRX never progressed its Dronabinol research for OSA to a phase 3 trial. Whatever proprietary formulation they come up with – even if it does not outperform IHL-42x – could still be valuable to ResolutionRX because they can patent it instead of merely relying on their license for Dronabinol in its unmodified form.

    Sud's selling could have been motivated by a number of things: a need for cash for upcoming litigation, and potentially clearing a conflict of interest that could have prevented him from entering into his contract with ResolutionRX. He may be avoiding his IHL shares being converted into IXHL shares if we move to the direct NASDAQ listing: a situation that could have different implications for him than it does for the average investor (think about his US based litigation and the possibility of his US-based instruments being frozen or seized). Does any of this mean he thinks he can improve upon the Dronabinol/Acetazolamide combination? Maybe. Let him try. It is a free market. There is no evidence of preclinical trial results, let alone clinical ones, for whatever Sud might be planning.

    The fact that they are planning to go directly to phase 3 trials strongly infers to me that this will be Dronabinol with maybe just enough modification to warrant its own patent, making it likely the emphasis isn't on trying to outperform IHL-42x. They would have to complete earlier phase trials if their formulation differs too significantly from Dronabinol. In other words, no combination therapy.

    I respect this has you concerned. But I've seen many professionals develop tech for one company, then move on to work on similar tech for other companies. It doesn't mean what they do for the next company is going to outperform what they did for the former company: the IP will be different, and all we can infer is that both companies hope to derive value from their version of the tech and have hired the same professional for their expertise. ResolutionRX's customary formulation of Dronabinol will be different to Incannex's Dronabinol/Acetzolamide combination drug which, we know, exhibits synergistic effect that surpasses in efficacy the use of either component alone and also allows a low THC dose that leaves patients unimpaired and legally able to drive the next morning in most jurisdictions.

    For all we know, ResolutionRX may be internally mainly targeting anorexia, but like the ring of an announcement including OSA as an indication for the additional TAM it brings. Either way, they are going to have to complete the research with Dr Sud, design trials for both indications if they intend to go for both, and then carry out those trials IF Dr Sud's work results in something they believe is viable.

    Competition isn't a new concept. What matters is evaluating the competition and keeping a realistic notion for how much of the market each competitor might hope to carve out. Frankly I'm more concerned for ResolutionRX investors than I am for Incannex: they will be actively doing business with Dr Sud as his lawsuit progresses, hoping their collaboration results in something worth their while, while Incannex already has IHL-42x and will be entering pivotal trials shortly.
 
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