IHL 0.00% 4.1¢ incannex healthcare limited

General discussion, page-17926

  1. 1,091 Posts.
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    Potentially foolishly, who knows, I have significantly increased my stake in IHL now. I like to be more measured on my discussion and not talk my buys etc - but ive noticed a few things that make me pretty confident this is in a strong buy territory for those willing to take the risk. Key term, risk.

    Most of my reading has been around biotech M&A, trying to figure out what Joel and the crew are doing in the US.

    Firstly, Biotech startups live on M&A. Most don't go to production. IHL have a new board member specifically for that.

    Secondly, M&A and Biotech M&A specifically is pretty difficult from a regulatory standpoint. The board have moved to the US to a jurisdiction that will make that as easy as possible.

    Thirdly, M&A has increased recently, with stocks down and capital harder - little guys are struggling. Look at IMU. Moving to the US for the reasons Joel has stated gives them an avenue at the time that the big players are looking to swoop up IP.

    Fourthly, acquirers like pipelines of different products, IHL isnt a 1 drug biotech. The pipelines are a much easier sell for boards and shareholders. This also give IHL different avenues of sale, such as future earn outs and whatnot.

    General thoughts, I think seeing how the studies progressed this year and a focus on company strategy - I think it's clear that Joel has this in his sights. If he was worried about shareholders and the company I'm sure we'd be getting some fluffy announcements.

    The current market cap absolutely doesn't represent what IHL would sell for if they had to. Their liabilities are almost nothing, so theres no accounting tricks on that side. They have $50m intangibles that are a bit nonsense, but thats not relevant to my point.

    So $30m cash on a $100m market cap. $70m value to attribute to their entire suite on liquidation. IHL-42X has been given various valuations along the road that are multiples of that.

    This might sound like a strange comparison, but MVF - an IVF treatment clinic - has a $500m valuation with $200m revenue. They've been up there with less revenue too. $100m revenue for clarion is 10k patients 2025 apparently (lol, 2026-27).

    Current valuation has external factors too;
    - Sud selling 200m shares right into a delisting, with subdues buyer pool.
    - Biotech field being beaten down hard due to rates.
    - Index removal takes away some automatic buyers.
    - Delisting and moving creates forced selling and lack of buy.
 
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