General discussion, page-188

Hi Panda, went back and did some digging into the previous Sept 2019 quarter to see their predictions for the Dec 2019 quarter.

Versus actual Dec 2019 quarter.

Plus

So total (1406) cash burn without taking into account revenues and exercise of Sud's $200K from his 2c oppies. (258) of that was costs for the Peloton CR.

The estimate was fairly accurate but was an overshoot by 100K. Here's the estimate for the March 2020 Quarter that you talked about.



So if we consider this as accurate, we gotta add revs right? March quarter historically best quarter for IHL and I guess mouthguard biz? I noticed the 9.2 costs are forecasted to be a LOT higher than in previous quarters, and a bit of an increase in R&D but other costs seem to be down or barely higher. Last March quarter IHL had $435k in revs from mouthguard biz alone.


I feel like this might not be matched on mouthguards alone this quarter, maybe due to corona fears and general job losses making buying the dental biz's products not on anyones priority list. (Pure speculation here they could still be getting sold as normal).
But then we have to add in oils sales, IHL sold I cant remember how many units now and I cbf to go back and check but it was a fair amount. That probably explains the MASSIVE increase in the 9.2 costs, but surely that has to also translate in revenue?

So what can we expect? Honestly, I really don't know. But I'd like to see how much $$$ oils actually makes. We know AGH makes a fair bit of $$$ on their oils but their costs are insanely high too.

Then finally,
Sud exercised his 3c oppies during the March quarter, so add 300K to the cash flow statement.

So if we lets say consider the 1.45M outflow statement to be accurate, -300K to that automatically to get 1.15M.
Add revenues for March quarter, lets lowball and say 300K? I suspect higher unless dental biz was severely affected by COVID.
Now down to around 800K spend or so.

But this doesnt consider the amount they may be spending on ARDS. But IMO that is in the June Quarter no? Since they probably did all that during April. Good call about the FDA approval and Camargo though, but FDA approval was always in the INCANNEX Plan as per Sud's preso. I suspect the Camargo consultancy was factored into the forecast?

Next deal that was made was the expansion of generic oils.

I'm not sure if this was factored into the initial forecast for the March quarter? This could be greater expense, but I am still holding that the enormous increase of 9.2 costs forecasted for March quarter takes some of this into account. It has to be oils related because they cannot be jacking up costs of production and operating costs by 350K just for dental biz.

Last deal to be made in March quarter was the inhalers


How much do they cost? Surely not more than they make I hope... They dont specify. This one I feel like they didnt forecast because I suspect the BOD thought to pivot to this because of COVID-19. This one I believe would add to the cashburn of March quarter, and I think the revenues will only surface in the June quarter.

Anyways, 2M is still a gut feeling and you may be right but I have the feeling that 2M is too high. But even if it is 2M, -300K immediately and whatever the March qtr revenues will be and you probably get 1.3-1.4M total cash burn even with that high estimate. My estimate is lower, gonna stick with maybe 1.6M burn and after adding revs 1M or <1M in outflows.

IHL likes to release their quarterlies on the last possible date so we probably have to wait til then. Zzzz.