General discussion, page-7551

Spot on @MickeyMantle536
Many have come and gone over the years, Mickey was one of the few who truly backed management heavily and in this case our team was spectacular, so here we are.

I made a tweet the other day regarding the peer comparisons, funny that I mentioned CARA, MMED and CMPS + GW in Februrary this year but seems only now that some in the market are realizing that these are our true peers.

I made a mistake in the tweet regarding market caps, was just running it off memory.

Cannabinoid Program

With these updated MCs, I would go as far to say as we have a superior cannabinoid program to CARA. 5 pathways for our CBD novel combination drug programs:
1. Obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA), Phase 2B ongoing
2. Traumatic brain injury (TBI)/concussion, Animal Study ongoing to jump straight to Phase 2
3. Lung inflammation (ARDS, COPD, asthma, bronchitis), Phase 1/2 planned Q4 2021
4. Rheumatoid arthritis Phase 1/2 planned Q4 2021
5. Iinflammatory bowel disease Phase 1/2 planned Q4 2021

CARA has recently completed a Phase 2/3 trial and I believe is moving onto commercialization.
CARA's drug is targeting a condition called pruritius. Has a TAM of around US$16.5B by 2025.

How does that stack up versus our TAM as per @thevinnys


Subject to success w/ OSA, I bet that the US Market would take that very well. One major thing to take into account is the risk appetite of US investors compared to ASX investors. Deeper pockets and more numerous aside, US investors have a way higher risk appetite. They are more willing to value prospective companies at far higher valuations, even before any genuine success or inflection point. They see the potential of success more than the risk of failure, whether that is a good or a bad thing is up to the risk profile of each investor but soon IHL will be valued the way US investors see it, and that is risk on.

Let's play it safe and then say the CBD Arm could be worth US$700M, but on the upper bar I would actually expect the NASDAQ to value the CBD arm around US$1B. At US$700M, that is around A$960M. Essentially A$1B. Following?

Psychedelics

6. Psi-Gad Phase 2 trial pending a Pre-IND, very similar to MMED. They jumped to the US$1B market cap range after they listed from OTC to the NASDAQ and completed their Pre-IND meeting. I think some of us here believe that there are more trials coming, targeting other conditions using psychedelics and having the world class Dr Paul lead these program(s) up for us is invaluable.

This one is really straight forward, MindMed is currently about to commence a Phase 2B LSD for Anxiety. We are identical, just using Psilocybin instead of LSD for Anxiety. MindMed just has their Pre-IND completed before us, and has a stronger cash position. Yet valued at US$1B.

Discounting the entire CBD drug pipeline, there is no good reason why we cannot be valued the same once our Pre-IND has been completed and our trial has started. That is A$1.35B if we match MMED current valuation.

7. Combined, that is a possible potential valuation of A$1B for the CBD Drugs, and A$1.35B for Psi-Gad, as it stands today.
If we throw in another Psychedelics Trial, and continue to advance in our CBD Drug pipelines with successful trial results

Total A$2.35B is fair value of the company in my view, by the end of the year. This is because by then, we would have had OSA results (if successful at meeting primary endpoints), as well as our Pre-IND meeting complete for the Phase 2B Psi-Gad trial which would commence.

Will we be there in share price by the end of the year? Probably not.
Next year? Who knows. I would hope so and it's a long way from the current share price. Value is still there. Roth and co see that.
That value will continue to increase the more de-risking events happen, and if any other curveballs are sent in like another psychedelic trial.

Good luck everyone. The next 6-12 months are going to be unreal.