Now that the SP has broken out in anticipation of progress...

Now that the SP has broken out in anticipation of progress towards the NASDAQ listing, I think it's a good time for me to indulge in some conservative estimates for the ASX SP going forwards.

In first three days of NASDAQ trading

Within 72 hours of being traded on the NASDAQ, and possibly within 24 hours, I offer as an ultra-conservative target price: 56c.
This would represent a half a billion dollars US of market cap: which undervalues the company to down below at least half of its worth, relative to its US peers.

This target is doubly conservative. I believe the SP could climb a fair bit further towards fair valuation within the first few trading days. We could even reach 56c before NASDAQ trading starts, in the lead up to the first trading day. But more importantly, I believe the fair valuation of the company on the US market is far north of 1 billion US. If you place that valuation at 1.25B USD, then the ASX SP representing half that fair valuation would be around 71c. 1.5B USD? 85c.

I like to stay at the conservative end of the range, so I'll be expecting something in the vicinity of 56-60c in those first three days.

The 1B USD valuation is based on just one arm of the company's drug development program: Incannex has six (four drug candidates, with one multi-use), with a potential seventh to be announced.

Christmas 2021

By that time, NASDAQ trading will have likely had more than a month to reach some sort of peak and small retrace, and might be stabilizing into a trading range. On the conservative end, I'd be looking at the valuation of the company reaching 75% of the lowest fair valuation for the company vis-à-vis its US peers (1B USD). That would equate to an ASX SP of roughly 85c.

Factors that could drive the SP quite a bit further north of that, would be news flow and strongly successful marketing efforts. If word really gets out that IHL-42x phase 2b trial results are a month away and will most likely be well-received by the market, SP will rise further in anticipation of this, and could put us beyond the 1B USD valuation by the end of 2021 (leading to an ASX SP of above $1.13).

Personally, I rate the likelihood as being fairly strong that enough investors will have digested what may lie just ahead for the company, for the SP to move a fair way in that direction by the end of 2021. I'm placing my ASX SP target at 95c for that point.


January 2022

I believe at least two factors will drive steady growth in the SP in January.
Anticipation of positive IHL-42x phase 2b trial results, AND spreading understanding of the array of IP and potential addressable markets for Incannex drugs in development.

I'm going with an estimated ASX SP of $1.05 - $1.10 by the time the IHL-42x trial results are ready to go live.
I won't hazard much of a guess as to what might happen once the results are released, but if they are positive, a peak ASX SP below $1.20 would be bizarre in my view.

Other catalysts

Besides advancing their other clinical programs (IHL-216a, IHL-675a) and associated FDA pre-IND processes, we can be certain Incannex's BOD will be lining up one or more price sensitive psychedelic announcements within the first few months of NASDAQ trading. They understand the US market's keen interest in psychedelics. The GAD pre-IND would be one source of news flow, and an announcement on the nature of their second psychedelic program could be another. It is difficult to say how big a reaction the market will have for these, but it will not be indifferent!

Incannex has shown a propensity to maintain very engaging news flows, and with what is lined up for 2022, I suspect we'll witness momentum from a streak of good announcements for a part of that year.

This is of course all in my very humble opinion, and you should do your own research into Incannex and its business before forming an opinion. Adverse market events could have a powerful effect on the market overall, even if my conservative approach is otherwise correct (and likewise, a strong market recovery could push things the other way).

Good luck to all who embark on this journey with us, and my heartfelt gratitude to the many excellent contributors to this forum who have helped me get a sense for this company's trajectory.