Short answer is I am not 100% sure for AHQ's product, which is high vol prime coking coal. Unlike iron ore or thermal coal, there are several different coals on market all which are baselined against HCC price with many % uplifts and % downgrades in price based on different coal characteristics. Below is the premium low vol coking coal price currently, CFR is in China on inbound port stockpile (includes shipping), FOB DBCT is on outbound port (doesn't include shipping). AHQ plans to ship through Mexico, which should enable the company to play the current arbitrage benefit of shipping into China currently. Historically the difference between CFR and FOB DBCT has been US$5-15/t, so the arbitrage benefit is massive due to the current geopolitical issues between China and Australia and the ban on Australian coals.
Based on the pricing information which Coronado released in its equity presentation, I believe the AHQ product could fetch between US$150-190/t in the current market. The new elk study was based on US$130/t coal price, which resulted in a forecast NPV of US$564M and annual EBITDA of A$76M, so if current pricing is sustained than AHQ will benefit hugely... But they need HCC linked contracts in place, which M Resources is still working on.
