The company was pretty clear in the past two quarterlies that they were getting market prices, meaning USD 345.
It's 7 June and they shipped 5,000t in April, and further 15,000t in May. There was no change to guidance of the second shipment of 15,000t this quarter (stated in the latest quarterly) or the total guidance for the quarter of 45,000t (stated a few months ago).
I am not sure they need to announce or will announce the second 15,000t in June. Last time what they did was to provide updated guidance in mid-March. Maybe they will do the same maybe they won't. No news means ship is steady.
I value it on the basis that there is a contract in place with Aurizon to move 200,000 between February 2023 and January 2024. I expect 45,000t this quarter, and 50-70,000t in each of the next two quarters.
Cost basis - even if in the unlikely scenario the all in cost was triple the DFS (125×3), the company would still be making 150 per tonne.
From February next year the company is expected to shift 150,000 per quarter. And even if our profit margin stayed at 150 per tonne, it would still be 90mln per year, which is our current market cap.
Who knows who is selling, and who cares, for every seller there is a buyer. Use this opportunity to load up and start the clock on CGT discount, it will be minimum 6-7 times current price in a year. Personally, I think it will be 11-14 times (600kt x 250-300margin x 7multiple) the current price if not more (on expectation of stage 2)
And yes, someone could have got more somewhere else while the share price is languishing but timing these things is difficult.
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