I started with a small parcel today. Market cap of 45millions...

I started with a small parcel today. Market cap of 45millions seems undervalued. Even if the funding announcement never comes, the company says by end of January they can produce 240,000t/pa (3 months earlier than they anticipated).

A decent chunk of stage 1.5 funding isn't required until 2024H2, it'll be tight, but it seems like CXM will make some sort of profit in H12024 and be able to self fund a decent chunk of 1.5 upgrades with sales.

What will the company be valued at in 12-18 months time if they're producing 625,000t/pa for $160-180/t, or even producing at $200/t, and then selling for $300/t - $350/t (or more)?

When I found out China recently banned their fertiliser exports (2021 China were the largest phosphate rock exporter with 24% of the marketshare, ahead of Morocco with 20%). If those export bans stay in place, that surely puts CXM in a better environment in terms of finding new buyers while we ramp up production in 2024.

Who knows exactly what prices will do in 12-18 months time, but I see some upside potential in prices when the largest exporter suddenly stops exporting.

All just my opinion, DYOR not financial advice.


https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/phosphatic-fertilizers