To get to NPAT of $14mln for this financial year, they would need to:
1. Sell in excess of 90kt in April-Jun (to bring the half year over 120kt) which is doable and in line with previous production guidance. Although I got a bit spooked by the statement that there was not much stock in port except for the latest shipment and no statement how much stock was in the logistic chain.
2. On at least AUD$120 per tonne profit margin to cover fixed costs. This one is a bit of a blackbox at the moment but assuming the premium to world bank price in the Asian market is 30% then it would make sense. World bank price is also historic so they probably rose already.
Any assumptions in Taylors as to the above?
CXM Price at posting:
6.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
