General discussion, page-544

  1. 395 Posts.
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    No way rock phosphate prices will average under $250us going forward.

    The main reason for price suppression since 2008 was China exports. Even if China does resume some exports they will not export massive quantities of phosphate ever again. They don't have the reserves and they have massive internal consumption from farming and LiFePO4 batteries.

    Nickel supply is in turmoil. Any current or future major ev or battery pack manufacturers will be adopting LiFePO4 chemistry. Main players have already. This will be millions of tonnes of phosphoric acid demand, many millions of tonnes of rock phosphate.

    The population of Africa is growing massively, the global demand for phosphate fertilizer is going to rise dramatically along with population. The world's only long term phosphate deposit is high in cadmium and will cumulatively poison farms using it.

    Ardmore is high grade, ultra low cadmium, close to Asian and Pacific customers making it much more cost effective compared to Morroco.

    10 year life of mine was based on optimising NPV assuming $170 a tonne. Simply by changing the price to a forward conservative estimate of $250 we would expect a massive jump in life of mine as well as overall NPV by including higher strip ratio targets. Not to mention potential further exploration targets.

    No point basing your value estimates on outdated assumptions.
 
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