Originally posted by InvestorGuy6000:
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As I said in my post, my valuation is based on convservative estimates, I'm in no way saying that the phosphate price can't get higher but given the last world bank pink sheet showed phosphate rock priced at $172.5/ton which is already the highest its been in nearly a decade, using a price of $250 (almost 50% higher) would be irresponsible for anyone trying to do a serious valuation and certainly not 'conservative' as you suggested. That's not saying it can't get there and if the global situation remains as it currently is theres a decent chance it will, however I'm not in the business of predicting the future and there are a plethora of things that could happen between now and when CXM actually start's selling their product that could negatively impact the phosphate market outlook so when doing a valuation it should be based on current market facts.
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CRU, one of the worlds leading analysts on Rock Phosphate, reports that OCP Morocco (the worlds leading Phosphate Rock producer) are “now agreeing some 68-72% BPL phosphate rock contracts for the first
quarter 2022 at $245-300/t FOB”, reflecting a $90/t rise on the 2021 Q4 Morocco (68-72% BPL) price
assessment at $140-225/t FOB. (Feb 24 2022