Clearly government incentives have the ability to shift the timing of consumer's purchase decisions and we saw that over in NZ with almost no EV's being sold in the couple of months after a generous scheme ended.
I understand that Germany had incentives that ended at the end of 2023 and this most likely shifted some EV purchases that would have ordinarily occurred in 2024 back into 2023. This has the combined effect of increasing the starting base for "fall" in demand figures and makes the low point after incentives have ended in 2024 unnaturally low. I'd have however expected most of these effects to wash out within the first 3-6 months of the Germany EV incentive scheme ending.
One factor that would continue to keep EV sales down is if there were widespread speculation about a new incentive scheme happening (perhaps from 2025). Are there any widespread rumours in Germany to this effect which would have consumers holding off buying an EV as they wait for a new incentive scheme to emerge?
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