LMG 2.08% 4.7¢ latrobe magnesium limited

Hi The following are only personal thoughts and should not be...

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    Hi

    The following are only personal thoughts and should not be the basis of any decision.

    Perhaps you may not be considering this development in the right light?
    The current s.p may be disappointing but not a real indicator of where we are heading imo.

    LMG are in staged realisation of the business plan and cannot put the cart before the horse. In many respects the business plan has not even really begun.
    LMG have only been establishing a business case up until the commissioning and successful demonstration of the process and outcomes.
    As in any new business, and I say (new) because up until last year and the purchase of the site, project funding and the commencement of the demonstration plant construction, the many years prior have been essentially been research and development. LMG are now entering into the phases of becoming a business that produces magnesium and SCM's but realistically still have some distance to go.

    The demonstration plant is not intended to be a direct commercial outcome. In fact, the demonstration plant is forecast to be either break-even or operate at a loss. It's pretty hard to expect institutional investors to lay down a significant investment for a plant that regardless of all the aspirations and promise of positive outcomes from previous R&D, is a fundamentally a proofing process at scale. As such, the s.p is stagnant until further news to keep it bouyant and then successful commissioning of the demonstration plant and the communication of proof of process, reduction in CO2, plant and equipment, by-products (SCM's), etc.

    I think it is useful to think of the 1000tpa demonstration plant as a larger scale laboratory trial, as you say. The 1000tpa is the capacity of the demonstration plant, not necessarily at all the volume that will be produced to demonstrate the effectiveness of the technology. LMG may in fact only product 500 tonnes of magnesium in the process of demonstration the scienc/tech at scale. We will see. The demonstration plant also is to serve the purpose of demonstrating the same technology for the use of ferro nickel slag as feedstock. D.P stated this in a recent interview.

    The commercial aspects of the demonstration plant are, what its success will bring to the table. In other words, when the process is proven, things will get more serious for shareholders and for potential investors. Investors including Federal and State Government funding under a range of funding instruments, further investment by off-take partners in the quicker development of the first commercial production plant (10,000+tpa). Further investment from sophisticated investors that have their risk profile being adequately met, greater interest in the finance/joint venture aspects of the 100,000tpa plant overseas, etc.

    The volume of fly ash has been sorted to as large degree. D.P has said that even with the current outputs of Yallourn there is sufficient fly ash for 20 years @ 10,000+tpa of Mg. The volume of fly ash does not even take into account the massive volume of fly ash stored in land fill or the potential to further negotiate with Hazelwood.

    As far as HR technical staff, I think you need to do your own further research. CSIRO, Monash University, Mincore as support and existing staff which would include a broad range of people qualified in various sciences and engineering.
    LMG also have a well-rounded board of directors and existing staff:
    • LMG CEO: Mr David Paterson is a qualified non-practising Chartered Accountant and a graduate from the University of Queensland
    • LMG Non-Executive Director: Mr. Wandmaker is a Mechanical and Computer Engineer and a graduate from Monash University
    • LMG Non-Executive Director: Mr. Bruce is a mining engineer with extensive resource industry experience in Australia
    • LMG Project Manager: Mr. Awad is an experienced Project Manager with 12 years of demonstrated history in delivering EPCM services to the mining and oil & energy industries
    • LMG Non-Executive Director: Mr. Lee has a broad range of commercial skills and experiences in both the public and private sectors. He has held senior management roles in the Federal Department of Employment and Industrial Relations.
    • LMG Procurement and Contracts Manager: Mr. Trigger holds a Mechanical Engineering Degree from Swinburne University and an MBA (Executive) from RMIT
    • LMG Non-Executive Director: Mrs. Blackburn graduated from Melbourne University with a Bachelor of Laws (hons), has a Masters in Social Science (Planning and Environment) from RMIT University and has been a Honorary Senior Fellow at the University of Melbourne
    • LMG Chief Operating Officer: Mr. Gillen is a process engineer, project manager and a graduate from Murdoch University.
    • LMG Technical Director: Mr. Siemon is the Technical Director for Latrobe Magnesium. Reporting to the MD, the charter has been to lead the development of the process flowsheet through the technology sourcing (or the development steps where needed) and the early engineering studies, to the point where the first plant could be built.
    • In addition, D.P has already stated that there will be an addition 50 people projected to be employment for the 10,000+tpa plant, which would very likely include chemical engineers and other highly qualified science practitioners.

    Not for a moment do I think the demonstartion plant is "a bit dodgy".

    Personally, I think the demonstration plant will be commission in approx. September. Time is of the essence and while the market is screaming for alternative suppliers, there are many other companies developing tech that will also be in the market of reduced CO2 and providing alternative to China. The magnesium market is forecast to double by the year 2030 and with Russia and China being the two main producers and in cahoots, the world is looking for security of supply, geopolitical safe grounds and the benefits in green and ESG credentials. The market is going to well and truly big enough for LMG but there are still great benefits in getting to the idyllic production scenario, such as contracts via distributors with Tesla, Mercedes, Hyundai, VW, Kia, etc, etc.

    I digress.

    There are too many balls in LMG's court and as I have listed before in previous posts, LMG has been highly successful in the implementation of the business plan over the last 12 to 14 months. In fact, I think LMG have gone from strength to strength. Do I think that LMG could be far more transparent rather than LinkedIn and Twitter tidbits? My word! The delay in the PFS is frustrating. The lack of information regarding engineering has been dismal and the PR in my opinion has been abysmal. Yet, I have high expectations for LMG based upon the progress to date, LMG's partners, great opportunities for the revised Critical Mineral's Strategy and Government investment, offtakes, up-front payments and plenty of other solid indicators of success in the future. 4 x the s.p? I think that is conservative for prior to the 10,000+tpa plant imo.

    Do your own research as the mantra goes.
 
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