You forgot to pay Mali as FFX doesn't have 100% (Mali govt get 20%) but the essence remains.
Even cutting in Mali, backing out the smelter rate @6% (which I believe is NSR), with a softer gold price (say us$1800 with aisc of us$1000/oz) and sticking to 200,000oz per year
200,000oz x us$800 x 0.8 = US$128,000,000 - 6% = US$120,320,000
pay some tax x 0.7 = US$84,224,000
convert to dolareedoos = ~$119,000,000
put a super weak as multiplier on it x3 = au$357,000,000
Throw the caaash c-c-c-c-caaaaash back in = au$457,000,000
So under even the most conservative judgement, as it stands now, without including any of their assets in plants and works and all that, or resource, just as a cash creating machine - you have to get half a billion odd for FFX. That's around 40-42c or whatever and is the absolute minimum for mine as it assumes the low side on everything.
Considering the knowledge of the mine and the resource is high, the potential for delivering on these baselines is clear and of course there is also a non-zero chance for an exploration discovery in the area. It's been a long time between drinks checking out what may be lurking in the area and this can't be discounted.
Of course the potential for an accretive acquisition is an open and totally not secret. Barrick still offloading "non tier 1" assets in Africa, last I checked Tongon was the last major one left, not sure if it's still available.
All in all I am in on FFX.
FFX Price at posting:
$1.05 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
