True value of FFX can be derived as below;
FFX knowns:
SOI and target of production/delivery for 2022 of 100000kOz Au - this offers a EPS
IPO LLL price per share offer at 70c
Cash in Bank Say $120mill after final LLL payments
Using these figures we can assume a EPS of 7.5c + cashPS 10c + LLL PS 14c = roughly 31.5c (it bottomed at 32c today) add some assets plants and equipment etc. Lets call it 34.5c
This is the bare bone basic value Price per share, doesn't take into consideration a likely PE ratio or ramp up of production. PE could be anywhere from 1 to 20. 5 to 10 is highly likely if divvies are to be paid in near term future. Place 5 into the formula then all of a sudden SP is more like 61.5c.
This also assumes LLL is set at 70c or $838mill MC. Also, cash position has not moved upward after producing more gold.
I believe a gross amount of people are keen to get their hands on LLL, price is likely to go up quickly, this obviously then reflects in FFX share price through their ownership. Numbers of up to $4bill MC have been thrown around for the SP, that's extremely ambitious for ST - However 1 to 2 bill MC are very feasible immediately.
FFX gold production too will grow up to 200kOz pa and beyond.
Will not take long after LLL listing for people to realise really how undervalued FFX is especially compared to its peers. I have started accumulating again now, as the SP is nudging toward its lower bracket of way too cheap (not an official term).
The sell down today was totally expected - if you didn't expect it then you really didn't do any research or don't understand what is happening here.
Guarantee larger organisations and brokers are accumulating now.
Probably really worth checking back when the new gold estimates are released to market in a couple of weeks and LLL starts trading.
Should be a short cooling off period before prices will really start to fly.
Two individual companies with clear communication on what each are producing and reflective on commodity pricing.
Clear Blue sky ahead
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