No harm will come to Ganfeng in the foreseeable future imo, no...

No harm will come to Ganfeng in the foreseeable future imo, no matter what happens to & with Goulamina or Morila, because they hail from a nation that is an ally of both the junta and the junta’s other key ally, Russia. The same cannot be said for us. When it boils down to it, the dispute resolution on offer probably isn’t all that complicated and has probably been delivered as a $ fait accompli. Mali clearly has no fear of its international reputation in the West or of toothless overseas tribunals based in nations that they have already kicked out of their own country, especially now that they have two new sugar daddies who want every cubic inch of what they’ve got, and neighbouring countries who are also visibly bristling against the West. From news reports Mali is obviously happy tackling the likes of Barrick, so we are small fish in the pan by comparison.

I think that if every Western-owned operator “lost control of” their mines in Mali tomorrow, not a single ounce of gold or gram of lithium would go to waste - it would all be immediately bought by Russia & China with the Mali government’s endorsement. And no Mali workers would lose their jobs because they’re already the ones extracting it, not suits in Perth, London, Paris or Toronto. Would Western countries go to war with Mali over this: no. So it’s hard to see what leverage exists from our side other than broad economic sanctions, but there’s not much in the medium term that Mali couldn’t already source from Russia, China or other African nations.

Probably all that Mali needs to do is to declare Firefinch and Leo unfit/excluded operators on the basis of (confected/overblown) failures or breaches (e.g. taxes & duties, related party indemnities given but not fulfilled, whatever) and exercise their expansive sovereign power to refuse to deal with them. The assets then effectively become distressed, immediately affecting valuation (just look at what FFX is already attributing to Morila - a nominal buck maybe for ~$250m of expended infrastructure). Somebody that meets with Mali’s approval will then have to buy these assets. And who could possibly blame GF if they magnanimously step forward for Goulamina, or, say, the Mali-owned Inter-Mining Services part of the original (creditor) pit mining contractor Mota Engil-IMS for Morila? It’s really not that far fetched imo.

So here we are, with negotiations over this unknown settlement continuing, and ASX delisting date - and all the additional disclosure obligations it entails - fast approaching. Divine intervention may be our only hope lol.