Still playing the ball - but will it continue?Yes ESS lost 1.5c...

Still playing the ball - but will it continue?

Yes ESS lost 1.5c to finish on 52c. Our volume was average, just over 2.9m shares traded. Holding steady for now, waiting for greater push from general markets as they are in driver seat for now.

ASX Li stocks had a small gain. Of the 54 stocks that I track, average gain was 1%.

Overnight US Li stocks also had a small increase, an average gain of just over 1%.

What next -

Yesterday US markets had another wild night. By now we have probably got used to not only big rise and falls on consecutive days, but within intra-day as well. After a big gap-up, Indices gave away some. But still a decent rise in the end. SP 500 gained another 1% to finish around 3720 after touching 3762. In contrast ASX after starting in negative territory, finished slightly in green, a gain of 0.3%.

Last few days somehow the US markets have been playing as I was thinking, nearly everyday close to what I was expecting. Fortunately it is still in positive direction. After a while the markets are playing a ball - but the big question is whether this rise will continue?

In my post from yesterday, I did outline couple of scenario and said I am playing for scenario 1, copying here:

Scenario 1 - Overall, I still feel that there is at least 50% chance that we may see a final lower bottom in next few week around initial 3400 but could be on average around 3250 on SP 500. If that were to happen we could drop from these levels (may come back from 3720) or we could continue our bounce and reach around 3800 level before retreating.
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Since yesterday, there is no change in what I am expecting. The markets have moved in the right direction but still a way to go. It closed on 3720 a number I had mentioned yesterday. The 3800/3810 is important zone and if we cross, 3900 which was a big support/resistance - this number is key.

Personally I am in same stage as yesterday, 85% invested. Did switch some stocks today between stocks doing well and laggards. As I have mentioned in last few days, I am playing for 3800 to be tested - it may or may not happen, but at this stage I thought its worth taking a punt.

So what will happen tonight? US Futures in small green. Asian markets were mixed but small red/green. VIX declined further 3% to 30.50 - we need it below 28 to start with to start looking slightly bullish. Cryptos, a risk asset, has not been buying the stock market rise. Many analysts feel that it may be an indicator that this run may not be sustained, else cryptos would be going up - just a theory among many others. Bitcoin still just above 19k. Yesterday Netflix, Goldman and some Airlines had good results. So markets may take a cue from them to go forward. But lot of other big reports coming soon. Markets are so fragile that one bad announcement/economic number is able to flip the markets. But till now the reports have probably given enough that a real test of 3800 on SP 500 is possible. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best.