Its all in the CPI data now
Yes ESS lost half cent to finish on 46c. Our volume was average, just over 2.4m shares traded. A weak trading day but good to hold 46c, a number which I mentioned in the weekly report. All now depends on CPI data.
ASX Li stocks were weak today. Of the 54 stocks that I track, average loss was 2%.
Overnight US Li stocks were very weak with average loss was close to 5%. ASX Li did better. US Li gained much previous day and lost more yesterday - evening out, but showing they are more volatile.
What next -
Yesterday US markets were very weak after not getting any strong signals from mid-term elections. SP 500 lost 2%. ASX too was weak but not that much, lost around 0.5%.
SP 500 lost the key support of 3780. Only 3720 may hold this else it may go to 3600 mark. Upside, needs to regain 3800.
Most indicators were negative yesterday including Yield, Dollar Index and VIX - one of the reasons for the fall. Most analysts feel that charts are not looking good and if we do not get a good CPI data, falls could be bigger. Many analysts have been calling for 2008 type of fall for quite some time, and they feel if its to happen, this may be the moment. JP Morgan made a statement that markets can swing 5 to 6% up or down on CPI data - such is the significance being given to it.
Personally I took some of the table from few which ran well, in case market drops so that I have some coins to buy.
So what will happen tonight? CPI data 1 hour before market. Its a binary even - like a toss, so not predictable. Stats are not in favour - most readings have come in hotter and many times market has sold into it. There is a precedence that if we rally to this data, we fall, and likewise if we come to this with a fall, we may gain. We lost yesterday, so satisfy one good thing on paper. Other thing is probability. Mostly data has come in hotter, so probability wise if it has to even, it should come in lower which may make markets rally. Will that happen? Lets hope so. All the best.
