I'll reluctantly settle for that!

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25/11/22

14:47

Post #: 64991265
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Originally posted by qwert0: ↑

I'm pretty sure that in one of the recent interviews Tim spoke of a plant output of 180kt so I think your assumption of 240kt may be optimistic.

Actually achieving a sale price of $12,000/t is very optimistic. Obviously if an offtake partner is going to be providing finance they will want something in return. They are going to want a contract price well below the market spot price. I would work on a conservative estimate of perhaps $6,000/t.

Royalty payable to the WA government is 5%. Company tax is irrelevant as this is returned to shareholders as a franking credit.

Processing cost of $160m per year sounds reasonable.

180,000 x $6,000 = $1,080m revenue
less: $54m royalties + $160m processing costs = $214m

$1,080m - $214m = $866m per year profit

Given the current shares on issue, that equates to an EPS of $3.30.

I assume we're probably going to have to issue more shares as part of the funding arrangement. Let's assume we increase our shares on issue by 50%. That still gives us an EPS of $2.20.

Easily enough to pay fully franked dividends of $1/share per year.

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I'll reluctantly settle for that!

ESS Price at posting: 42.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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I'll reluctantly settle for that!

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