A bucket of cold reality with shares back under 47c for all the...

A bucket of cold reality with shares back under 47c for all the no-vote guerrillas... If the TO got pulled ESS would be back into the low 30's with a bullet. Raising funds to go it alone would be a pineapple without any lube. Shorters and brokers would keep their foot on the price until they got filled at rock bottom for maximum risk-return rewards on the way back up from Lassonde purgatory... LT holding developers is not a fun ride in my opinion. My thoughts:

Risk of TO falling over is low, Tianqi are LT players and won't be spooked by ST market gyrations.
Biggest rRisk is go-it-alone dreamers and/or activist hedge funds voting no and causing Tianqi to walk and 'perhaps' come back when SH are begging a second chance.
No vote risk diminishes as holders get a taste of TO alternative outside the >50c confirmation bias courage.
Competing vote still possible, because it was always going to be after FIRB anyway imo. Let time sober up holder's price expectations before haggling with Tianqi on who wants it most.
Competing vote perhaps less likely as West Perth is a small place and many will know inside Miin Res whether or not they are interested in competing. Have to respect the price signal to some extent, and the price hasn't been saying bidding war for some time.
Bargains elsewhere make waiting another 3-6 months for 1-2c (maybe more maybe a lot less) unappealing. I only bought more at 47.5c after the TO was announced because I got at least 5%pa to play on what I still reckon is a high probability successful TO. Hopeful of competing bid, confident Tianqi would sweeten the deal 5-7cm, but that may not happen if the markets tank of course. If the market's tank Tinaqi may just walk and try to pick ESS up a cheaper later. Buying 52.5c was always higher risk play.

As another poster said, if the 50c comes good and we only waited 6 months for no more than taking 50c on the market 3 months ago, might turn out the smartest move compared to the losses we might have made playing other 'upside stocks' in the meantime?

GLTAH