Management would have you believe that there are only 2 possible...

Management would have you believe that there are only 2 possible outcomes.

1. Accept 50 cents and run for the hills, or
2. Vote against and go back to the pre-bid SP of 30 cents.

I see a range of potential outcomes which management do not want holders to think about.

Imagine if you were at a high stakes poker game. It's like ESS management are saying you only have 2 options - "Fold" or go "all in". But the reality is you can call, raise and stay in the game a lot longer if you want to.

My assessment is that the Lithium market is starting to recover and in fact has had a nice boost this week thanks to Albermarle spelling out very clearly what Australian Hard Rock resources are worth. They are the best "analysts" out there as they are the biggest and sell the most product to the largest customers in the world - and they are desperate for more spodumene resources and will pay up to get them.

So I very much doubt IGO / Tianqi will just walk away after one failed bid as Tim and the board would have you believe. Albermarle have already made 3 solid bids for LTR and may yet make another bid.

I see the most likely outcome to be that should there fail to be an alternative bidder, and assuming they don't get the required votes, then IGO will sweeten the deal to appease large holders - probably in the range of 60-65 cents. That's worth tens of thousands of more dollars to me should that be the case.

So in this game of high stakes poker, I have voted AGAINST the Scheme of Arrangement - or in other words I have "seen their bet and I've raised it" based on the nice cards that I am holding.

It's now up to them as to whether they "Call" and top up their bet to match my raise, or "Fold" and go home crying to mamma. I'm tipping they will "Call" and we will get a bit more for our shares.

However if IGO do decide to "Fold", then I have no issues as I believe with the positive sentiment returning to the Lithium market ESS will be at 40-45 cents SP (much higher than Tim and his mates would have you believe) so no great loss either way.

Good luck to holders whatever you decide.

It's up to us to vote with our feet as I feel Tim and the board have been a bit "Kramer-like" with their negotiating skills.