Just looked up the sub-holder notice ASx rules, and someone reaching (or controlling) 5% has to notify the ASX within 2 business days of the transaction. If the sub-holding accumulation is in relation to a pending takoever offer, then they have to notify the ASX by 9.30am the next morning.
10M shares traded Tuesday (7% of ESS SOI), 16M shares Wednesday (11%) and 11M so far today (7.5%)... so even allowing for some churn ESS has turned over 25% of the register in 3 days yet we have no sub notice to date
That may come by close of business today if they went substantial on Tuesday. If all this buying was prelude to another TO offer, the way I read it is a sub notice should have already been given if they went sub Tues or Wed. Unless the ASX considers a TO offer contemplated but not yet made does not trigger the "change in % holding by 9.30am next business day" disclosure rule? That doesn;t make sense, if a TO offer has to be made in the next few days (vote on 18th) then how could they hide behind some "we hadn't decide to make a TO yet" sort oof BS excuse??
The volume and buying pressure last three day says to me someone has made it to 19.9% holding but
will not make a TO offer before the vote. If they have >20% they have to make a TO offer, which means they should have already notified the ASX, but haven't. That means someone is buying a blocking stake, either to shake a better price out of Tianqi, or more likley Min Res wants to block the TO offer and sit down with Tianqi for talks about how they can "work together"...
If it was another TO offer or some revised offer from Tianqi to the ESS BOD, we would be in a TH. I can't see why Tianqi would revise an offer before the vote, certainly not to create this sort of price run and cement holder expectations that 50c is unders...
Only thing making sense to me is Min Res buying a blocking stake, we wait and see if Tianqi makes a revised offer for Min Res to flip for a quick profit (which I doubt they would do) thus I doubt Tianqi will make a higher offer without consulting with MinRes. If Min Res just wants to block, risk is the two of them walk away with the view to coming back with a joint TO offer in 12 months time on
their own terms.
I like what I see of course, but I also see risk it turns into a ESS stitch up, with no revised offer, a failed vote and shareholder left swinging in the breeze, short term at least. have sold down 1/3 just now in case and wait to see what happens. Happy to be proven wrong with a bidding war
GLTAH
