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Sweapon

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02/04/22

09:42

Post #: 60596881
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Originally posted by WhatsTheTip: ↑

You mean how quickly those blue bar's within LTR's recent presentation go back to being negative?
This isn't a short-term issue!!!

Let me see, on this piece of analysis and all others I've seen that demand shortage keeps on getting bigger. Where an industry might need another 10%, 20% or perhaps 50% supply to meet demand, the EV demand increase for lithium is well into the hundred's of percent. World production of lithium can double and it won't meet what's needed. World demand can go up 200% or 250% and it won't meet what is needed for EV's to become even 40% of the car market. That is a new and strange development. This is why despite predictions of world supply going from 500 to 1250kt+ LCE's supply isn't catching up with demand.

Its going to be hard for Spod prices to fall if demand exceeds supply - that's ECON101. This will flip Spod and lithium pricing from cost plus economic margins to the price at which car makers choose not to make EV's because of the cost of lithium in the battery pack. That price point is going to be fairly high for EV makers with waiting lists rather than stock they can't sell.

Next question - Can you go down to the local car yard, hand over your cash and drive away a popular EV model like Tesla model 3. No you can't. There is a long waiting list for popular EV's. Ford's F-150 Lightning truck is reported to have a waiting list out to 3 years.

If Spod prices stay high, projects like ESS's are more likely than not to progress and if there is even a 25% chance of ESS getting into production, its significantly under-priced.

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This was shared a couple months ago but supports exactly what you just said so figured I’d share it again, great video. Thank you Triage for initially sharing.

ESS Price at posting: 58.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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