A tentative start to the new financial yearYes ESS finished 1c...

A tentative start to the new financial year

Yes ESS finished 1c up on 36.5c. Few days back we did our lowest volume in 5 months. Today we beat that with a still lower volume in 5 months of just over 1.5m shares traded. Shows the punters do want to commit - both buying and selling. Yesterday we lost 1c, today gained 1c - still playing in the same trading range.

ASX Li stocks for a change finished in the green. Of the 43 stocks that I track, average gain was 1.5%.

Overnight US Li stocks were very undecisive. But they did not fall with the indices. They were mostly flat within range of 1 to 2% gains and losses.

What next -

Yesterday I had mentioned that the most probable US result would be red, may be medium red. Although US Indices started very weak with a start of over 2% decline. But it recouped some of the losses over time - and guess what? it finished on medium red. The whole week it has nearly played as I have predicted. Soon I should start writing it will be massive greens and we should get our favoured result - itching to do but not finding catalyst. It will happen, some patience required.

So what happened today? We started tentatively but positively. Overnight US falls were ignored. Maybe because we had already had a big drop in indices yesterday of around 2%. But as the day went, the ASX indices started getting smaller greens and ultimately it finished in red. Like yesterday there was another decent fall of indices after closing bell - yesterday the fall was 1%, today slightly less than half percent. Not sure why, may be spooked of another fall in US tonight.

Yesterday the US Personal Consumption Index came slightly below expectation - first positive data from US after a while. Although that was not enough to put US indices in green, but it tempered the loss. So although there was sign of inflation having peaked, but punters are still not buying it wholeheartedly to commit for long term.

Today some figures came from Japan around sentiment which was weak. Nikkei lost close to 2% and Asian stocks were in decline..

So what will happen tonight? US futures are currently red but not massive. Its fluctuating and it will continue to change. Based on market sentiment etc, probability is again for a red. I feel another medium red. Normally after so much decline I would have thought a green, but most analysts are still thinking there may be more decline before we get back. But till the US CPI figures come on July 13, no one will accept it. US markets are closed on Monday, so its very crucial for us to get something favourable tonight as that will dictate trading on Monday and Tuesday at ASX. As far as I know, there is no crucial US data tonight. So it will just run on sentiment. This has been worst first 6 months in US history for couple of indices and for others worst in 20 to 50 years. We should surely be close to bottom, if not at bottom. Lets hope its that way and we start next week on a positive note. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.