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Yes there is a huge wildcard as to how much lithium based...

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WhatsTheTip

2,893 Posts.

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01/09/22

18:07

Post #: 63469171
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Originally posted by w27: ↑

What has been ignored to date in all I have read about lithium demand is the absolute need for distributed electric power storage. With the huge construction of "renewable" energy we have two huge problems:

1. The massive requirement for new and increased transmission capacity to connect the new windmills and solar panels and the capacity to transmit power is reverse directions as the wind and sun are available at different locations at different times. Some estimates put the necessary increase in transmission capacity as seven or eight fold.
2. The second issue is the inconvenient fact that sometimes the sun doesn't shine and sometimes the wind doesn't blow and these two circumstances can coincide.

This is a huge problem and the extent of it has not yet even begun to be calculated let alone any solution proposed. One useful part solution is distributed storage which simply means that each consumer will have to install sufficient battery capacity for say half to a full hour load at peak useage. This will provide a huge reduction in peak load on the distribution system and thus a welcome reduction in cost of building it. It will also make a contribution to the total cost of storage for the frequent and sometimes embarrassing long periods when the sun doesn't shine and the wind doesn't blow.
The technology is already available to measure the load of a power consumer at any time and to set a fixed connection fee in proportion to peak load. A few power companies in the USA are already charging on this basis. If we ever see any rationality in the power industry in this country, we will see charging on this basis and there will be a rush to install small power storage units for individual consumers. While lithium ion technology is probably not the best for stationary storage, it is the only technology to roll out at scale presently available. The demand will be unprecedented.

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Yes there is a huge wildcard as to how much lithium based stationary storage demand there will be (and how much non-lithium demand). The Goldman's report estimated that stationary storage demand would grow from 10k LCE's of demand in 2020 to 58k LCE by 2025. One estimate below from Wood Mackenzie has another doubling of demand between 2025 and 2029 and continuing growth beyond then.

And for any estimate, there may be upside if the assumptions are conservative.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/06/stationary-battery-energy-from-now-to-2030.html

ESS Price at posting: 43.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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