What is the Risk? --> "for the long run" (+1y / +2y holding KCN) buyin into this company at these prices?
(i am not a trader, i cant time the market, sell low, buy high, repeat severall times and always be more right than wrong, hats off to those guys)
i also hoping for some funding news soon, but i dont really think (delays etc...) will be really the show-stopper "at this level we are now" in the long run, till next annual report (profit and loss account) where the market will see KCN producing/ mining again. (only 5 month up from now)
Till than i`ll adapt to the volatility , cause (KCN = free float shares, barely relativ news, low trading vloume, BoA pounding us? and a geoploitical / Fed driven "bear" market) to a current not profitable company isnt really a "booster" for the SP, hope that will change soon. At least POG / POS looks decent.
But the Risk with the current concessions made from the Thai side? Are? They basically confirm that it was wrong to close us. The arbitrator advises conciliation/negotiation.The Thais themselves know that TAFTA will work in our favour "no doubt" otherwise they (Thai gov) wouldnt allow us to re-open with all those additions (MPL, MLs, + quartz lease, +44 SPLs, etc..) naming it leagal and OK in the public.
Scenario for SP "numbered by probability" 1) we have the funding we will mine an will be a
1 $bn MC company soon (also delays, what does it matter, we open in 5 months +/- a few months)
--> SP i thnik 4-5$ in +1y (at the latest when Tafta is/will be withdrawn from our side)
2) the further negotiations "non-operational" with Thai fail, we take the "TAFTA" = 750$ million (probabyl more, cause + the sale of the MLs, SPLs, MPLs, +sale of the pant, + sale of machinery and fixed assets in Thai)
--> with the 750$ million we focus on "NE" and other projects,
3) we are running out of cash "liquidity" bevore we are able to get funding we are run "bankruptcy"
--> we still have TAFTA open till end of the year --> we get those TAFTA 750$ million dollars ( + the sale of the MLs, SPLs, MPLs, + sale of the pant, + sale of machinery and fixed assets + "NE") --> minuns "what" ? we dont have any debts? lets say "only" the 750 $ million which will be divided among the shareholders, its like
3.53$ per share held? "one time payout" bye bye
To loose Tafta after the concessions made from the Thai side is no option for me anymore.
Imagine running the MPL (plant) at full capacity, 10 mpta instead of 5-6 mpta so far --> that would mean doubling output (100% more gold produced, = profit = cash flow= dividend= buybacks).
Also looking on the short rate (not many bets against KCN, also a small indicator "that the story still fits")
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So probably its all about "seller" vs "buyers" volume and that it takes less "seller" volume to drive SP down, than "buyers" volume to drive SP up ?The algorythm, bots buy / sale is pounding/ fuk-king us hard.
Its always the same pattern "on opening" there is a big red candel casuing panic amog the retail holders
so who knows wo the seller and buyer is "they sell to tham selfs" pushing the SP down, making some retail holders to sell aswell, than picking up some shares additionally "good strategy" ?
+ on top the overall markt situation (KCN = free float shares, barely relativ news, low trading vloume, and a geoploitical / Fed driven "bear" market) + till now we are a "non profitable company" which will change in "only" 5 month.
So LONG KCN basically
(20min delay)